Is AMBA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AMBA is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: AMBA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AMBA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMBA to be between $67.19 and $81.42. The current price is $67.86.

What is the analyst price target for AMBA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMBA is $89.36. This implies a potential upside of 31.7% from current levels.

AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$67.86

-0.01 (-0.01%) ▼

5d: +7.07%

30d: -18.76%

90d: +3.13%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 03, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 11, 2026 at $68.12 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 6.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMBA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$24.87

Based on 8.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$15.44

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $67.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.19 to $81.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 101.2) is in line with its historical norms (103.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.12, while resistance sits at $72.40.

Market Sentiment: AMBA scores 95/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.36 (+31.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $67.19 - $81.42

Company Quality Score 67/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (95/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($89.36)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $67.19 - $81.42

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $58.12

Resistance Level $72.40

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 101.19

Wall Street Target $89.36 (+31.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 13.2%

Profit Margin -13.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 101.2 vs 103.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $67.38 (-1%)

2-Year Target $66.91 (-1%)

3-Year Target $66.44 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 101→103) $67.83 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 101.2, Growth: 12.5%) $96.71 (+43%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.5%) $19.28 (-72%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 12.5%) $16.39 (-76%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 101.2 to 103.3

Stabilization Target: $69.27 (+2.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.1%

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 7:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

John Alexander Young SELL 1971 shares 2026-04-21

Chan W Lee SELL 3641 shares 2026-03-19

Chi-Hong Ju SELL 2155 shares 2026-03-19

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Advanced AMBA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.

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