What is the fair value of AMBA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMBA to be between $63.40 and $69.13. The current price is $66.00.

What is the analyst price target for AMBA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMBA is $89.36. This implies a potential upside of 35.4% from current levels.

AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$66.00

2.78 (4.40%) ▲

5d: +7.39%

30d: -1.58%

90d: -6.4%

BUY

HIGH Confidence

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 24, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $64.57 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 8.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMBA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$24.87

Based on 8.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$15.44

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $66.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.40 to $69.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 98.4) is in line with its historical norms (102.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $59.12, while resistance sits at $69.36. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.

Market Sentiment: AMBA scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.36 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $63.40 - $69.13

Company Quality Score 67/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 88.1%

All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
BULLISH: Trading 35.4% below Wall St target ($89.36)
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 77/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $63.40 - $69.13

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $59.12

Resistance Level $69.36

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 98.42

Wall Street Target $89.36 (+35.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 13.2%

Profit Margin -13.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 98.4 vs 102.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $65.08 (-1%)

2-Year Target $64.16 (-3%)

3-Year Target $63.27 (-4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 98→103) $66.02 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 98.4, Growth: 12.5%) $94.06 (+43%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.5%) $18.98 (-71%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 12.5%) $16.13 (-76%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 98.4 to 102.7

Stabilization Target: $68.87 (+4.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.3%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:26 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced AMBA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.

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