AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares
$70.30
0.79 (1.14%)
â˛
5d:
+0.63%
30d:
+3.64%
90d:
-10.29%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMBA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMBA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.87
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $70.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.97 to $70.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 104.8) is in line with its historical norms (103.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.65, while resistance sits at $74.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.36 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.65, while resistance sits at $74.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.36 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.97 -
$70.73
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMBA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($89.36)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.97 -
$70.73
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.65
Resistance Level
$74.99
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
104.83
Wall Street Target
$89.36
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Profit Margin
-13.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
104.8 vs 103.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.65
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$71.00
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$71.36
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 105â103)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 104.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$100.19
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.5%)
$19.50
(-72%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 12.5%)
$16.57
(-76%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Alexander Young
SELL
1971 shares
2026-04-21
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Advanced AMBA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.
