ASML Holding NV (ASML) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ASML - ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC
$1566.25
0.35 (0.02%) ▲
5d: -1.55%
30d: -16.12%
90d: -8.51%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Nov 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026 0d
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why ASML plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $1575.00 · last confirmed Nov 2, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

Get Alerted When ASML Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading chart...

Loading historical data...

💡
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASML appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.3% annual earnings decline despite 136% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
ASML is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 1.9% over the next 20 trading days; ASML has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-02.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2722.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1690.67
7.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1566.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1615.65 to $1801.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.0) compared to its historical average (37.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 135.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1535.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ASML scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2149.23 (+37.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $1615.65 - $1801.71
Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 90.5%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 37.3% below Wall St target ($2149.23)
  • BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 77/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1615.65 - $1801.71
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1535.33
Resistance Level $1690.10
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 28.00
Wall Street Target $2149.23 (+37.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 55.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 135.9%
Profit Margin 34.1%
Valuation Discount vs History -9.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical 28.0 vs 37.5 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -9.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $1420.27 (-9%)
2-Year Target $1288.19 (-18%)
3-Year Target $1168.38 (-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 28→38) $1564.91 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 28.0, Growth: 35.7%) $3914.93 (+150%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 35.7%) $2777.00 (+77%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 35.7%) $2360.45 (+51%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $40.64
Bull Case $2536.72 (+62%)
Analyst growth 37.6%, PE expands to 45.4
Base Case $2306.11 (+47%)
Market implied 37.6%, PE stable at 41.2
Bear Case $1139.48 (-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.0 to 37.5
Stabilization Target: $2097.34 (+33.9%)
PE Expansion Potential: +33.9%
Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.
Last updated: November 02, 2026 12:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:08 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for ASML.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Featured in Portfolios

ASML is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.

Top Rated Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials by analyst ratings.

Stock Analyst Consensus Analyst Target Tradestie Score
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc
STRONG BUY
40 analysts
$628 75 BUY
LRCX
Lam Research Corp
STRONG BUY
34 analysts
$364 67 BUY
KLAC
KLA Corporation
STRONG BUY
29 analysts
$221 60 BUY
ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc
STRONG BUY
12 analysts
$383 56 HOLD
Q
Qnity Electronics, Inc
STRONG BUY
10 analysts
$174 57 HOLD

Advanced ASML Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASML price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for ASML

ASML Technical Chart ASML Price Prediction ASML Earnings Date ASML Investment Advisor ASML Fair Price Analyzer ASML Options Advisor ASML Options Chain ASML Options Analysis ASML Competitors
Live Trades
From trading groups
Loading trades...
View All Live Trades See Trader Consensus & Signals