What is the fair value of ASML stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ASML to be between $1658.09 and $1814.69. The current price is $1750.24.

What is the analyst price target for ASML?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ASML is $2102.18. This implies a potential upside of 20.1% from current levels.

ASML Holding NV (ASML) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ASML - ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

$1750.24

-30.10 (-1.69%) ▼

5d: -5.89%

30d: +3.06%

90d: -1.43%

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LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 14, 2026 TODAY

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $1769.79 · last confirmed Oct 12, 2026

Strength: 6.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ASML is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$2533.20

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1572.92

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1750.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1658.09 to $1814.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 33.6) compared to its historical average (38.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1750.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2102.18 (+20.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $1658.09 - $1814.69

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 72.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 20.1% below Wall St target ($2102.18)
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1658.09 - $1814.69

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1750.02

Resistance Level $1873.50

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 12, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 33.64

Wall Street Target $2102.18 (+20.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 21.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 28.5%

Profit Margin 30.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 33.6 vs 38.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1680.23 (-4%)

2-Year Target $1613.02 (-8%)

3-Year Target $1548.50 (-12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 34→38) $1749.37 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 33.6, Growth: 35.7%) $4371.15 (+150%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 35.7%) $2580.84 (+48%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 35.7%) $2193.71 (+25%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 28.90 | Forward EPS (Implied): $60.56

Bull Case $2113.41 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 30.4

Base Case $1750.24 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 28.9

Bear Case $1338.93 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.6 to 38.0

Stabilization Target: $1977.28 (+13.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +13.0%

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Last updated: October 13, 2026 8:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 AM

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ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

About

ASML is the leader in photolithography systems used in manufacturing semiconductors. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. The latest technological advances in this segment allow chipmakers to continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML's main clients are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $389,416,916,894

Employees: 44,127

Listed Since: 1995-03-15

Website: Visit

CIK: 0000937966

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