Is ASML stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ASML is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASML shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ASML stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ASML to be between $1664.72 and $1813.68. The current price is $1847.90.

What is the analyst price target for ASML?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ASML is $2170.81. This implies a potential upside of 17.5% from current levels.

ASML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ASML - ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

$1847.90

37.83 (2.09%) ▲

5d: +8.42%

30d: +1.8%

90d: +16.84%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 14, 2026

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $1740.99 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASML shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$2503.55

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1554.51

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1847.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1664.72 to $1813.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.9) is in line with its historical norms (39.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1873.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: ASML scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2170.81 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $1664.72 - $1813.68

Company Quality Score 32/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 26.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($2170.81)
WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1664.72 - $1813.68

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1582.00

Resistance Level $1873.69

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 35.93

Wall Street Target $2170.81 (+17.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 21.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 28.5%

Profit Margin 30.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 35.9 vs 39.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1794.31 (-3%)

2-Year Target $1742.28 (-6%)

3-Year Target $1691.75 (-9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 36→39) $1845.50 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 35.9, Growth: 35.2%) $4569.27 (+147%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 35.2%) $2572.38 (+39%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 35.2%) $2186.52 (+18%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 38.31 | Forward EPS (Implied): $48.23

Bull Case $2231.34 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 40.2

Base Case $1847.90 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 38.3

Bear Case $1413.64 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.9 to 39.2

Stabilization Target: $2015.84 (+9.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +9.1%

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Last updated: August 13, 2026 7:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM

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ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

About

ASML is the leader in photolithography systems used in manufacturing semiconductors. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. The latest technological advances in this segment allow chipmakers to continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML's main clients are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $389,416,916,894

Employees: 44,127

Listed Since: 1995-03-15

Website: Visit

CIK: 0000937966

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