Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
$4.73
0.14 (3.05%)
▲
5d:
+1.28%
30d:
+6.29%
90d:
-1.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMBP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMBP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.01
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBP is currently trading at $4.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.36 to $4.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.23, while resistance sits at $4.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMBP scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.23, while resistance sits at $4.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMBP scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.36 -
$4.66
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.05)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.36 -
$4.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.23
Resistance Level
$4.88
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.76
Wall Street Target
$5.05
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.0%
Profit Margin
0.7%
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.73
(0%)
2-Year Target
$4.73
(0%)
3-Year Target
$4.73
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.6%)
$8.50
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$6.75
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 12.6%)
$5.73
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 14.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.32
Bull Case
$5.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$4.73
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$3.62
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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