AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Metal Cans
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$4.69
-0.04 (-0.85%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.47%
30d:
+8.06%
90d:
-11.17%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (61%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$4.42 â $4.71
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.2x
FAIR
vs 15.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$5.08
+8.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$4.47 / $4.85
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMBP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.40
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBP is currently trading at $4.69, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.42 to $4.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.47, while resistance sits at $4.85.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.47, while resistance sits at $4.85.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$4.42 -
$4.71
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$4.42 -
$4.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$4.47
Resistance Level
$4.85
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.08)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.22
Wall Street Target
$5.08
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.5%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.74
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$4.78
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$4.83
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.0%)
$7.64
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 10.0%)
$6.24
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 10.0%)
$5.31
(+13%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 15.97 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.29
Bull Case
$5.66
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$4.69
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$3.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AMBP)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Aug 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits messages indicate bullish sentiment towards $AMBP, with traders expressing confidence in the company's profitability and potential acquisition. No recent news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes:
profitability
acquisition potential
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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