AMBP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
$4.58
0.08 (1.78%)
▲
5d:
+8.02%
30d:
+12.53%
90d:
+11.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMBP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMBP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.88
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.89
6.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBP is currently trading at $4.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.95 to $4.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMBP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMBP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.95 -
$4.30
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($4.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.95 -
$4.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.92
Resistance Level
$4.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.56
Wall Street Target
$4.50
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.0%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.57
(0%)
2-Year Target
$4.55
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$4.54
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$4.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.8%)
$10.75
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 18.8%)
$7.68
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 18.8%)
$6.53
(+43%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$4.62
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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