Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
$4.84
0.03 (0.62%)
▲
5d:
-5.1%
30d:
-4.35%
90d:
+19.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMBP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMBP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.10
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBP is currently trading at $4.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.94 to $5.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMBP scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMBP scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.94 -
$5.24
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.18)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.94 -
$5.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.73
Resistance Level
$5.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.90
Wall Street Target
$5.18
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.0%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.84
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$4.85
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$4.85
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.85
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$8.62
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$6.79
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 12.0%)
$5.77
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 16.34 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.30
Bull Case
$5.84
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.2
Base Case
$4.84
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$3.70
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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