AMERISAFE (AMSF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$19.31
-0.58 (-2.92%)
▼
5d:
-5.06%
30d:
-21.66%
90d:
-29.01%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
0d
Protect AMSF Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (92%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$21.01 – $25.79
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.3x
CHEAP
vs 14.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$31.00
+60.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$19.26 / $24.64
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMSF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Get Alerted When AMSF Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.48
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.17
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMSF is currently trading at $19.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.01 to $25.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMSF scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+60.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMSF scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+60.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.01 -
$25.79
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$21.01 -
$25.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.69
(3.6%)
Support Level
$19.26
Resistance Level
$24.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMSF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.5% below Wall St target ($31.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.34
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+60.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.0%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.38
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$15.64
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$14.08
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→15)
$20.28
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.3%)
$39.67
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 2.3%)
$20.66
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 2.3%)
$17.56
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.15
Bull Case
$19.00
(-2%)
Analyst growth -13.2%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$17.27
(-11%)
Market implied -13.2%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$13.53
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$27.81
(+44.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.0%
Share AMSF Analysis
Share this live AMSF analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AMSF)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Amerisafe reported Q3 earnings of $0.39 per share, missing estimates by $0.09 and causing a decline in share price. The insurance provider posted revenue of $79.8 million.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AMSF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Specialty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Specialty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group Hol… |
BUY
13 analysts |
$51 | 33 SELL |
|
FAF
First American Corporati… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$79 | 38 SELL |
|
AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd |
BUY
12 analysts |
$121 | 30 SELL |
|
NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc |
BUY
8 analysts |
$48 | 41 HOLD |
|
RDN
Radian Group Inc |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$43 | 35 SELL |
Advanced AMSF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMSF price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive AMSF Research Pages
