Essent Group (ESNT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESNT - Essent Group LTD
$60.22
1.36 (2.31%)
▲
5d:
-5.51%
30d:
-12.69%
90d:
-6.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ESNT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ESNT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.91
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESNT is currently trading at $60.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.50 to $69.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.61, while resistance sits at $68.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.71 (+24.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.61, while resistance sits at $68.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.71 (+24.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$64.50 -
$69.72
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ESNT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($74.71)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.50 -
$69.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.61
Resistance Level
$68.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.63
Wall Street Target
$74.71
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Profit Margin
51.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.71
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$57.25
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$55.82
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$59.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.1%)
$181.80
(+202%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 4.1%)
$68.02
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 4.1%)
$57.81
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.17
Bull Case
$71.25
(+18%)
Analyst growth 10.0%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$64.77
(+8%)
Market implied 10.0%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$40.02
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$64.70
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mary Lourdes Gibbons
SELL
7628 shares
2026-04-20
Mary Lourdes Gibbons
SELL
872 shares
2026-04-17
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