ESNT
Essent Group LTD
SURETY INSURANCE
Essent Group (ESNT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$64.82
+0.14 (+0.22%)
â˛
5d:
-6.52%
30d:
+4.48%
90d:
-6.44%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
0d
Protect ESNT Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$62.71 â $67.23
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.3x
FAIR
vs 8.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$70.88
+9.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
1th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$62.78 / $71.84
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ESNT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Get Alerted When ESNT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.70
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESNT is currently trading at $64.82, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.71 to $67.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $62.78, while resistance sits at $71.84.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $62.78, while resistance sits at $71.84.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$62.71 -
$67.23
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
1th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$62.71 -
$67.23
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$2.09
(3.2%)
Support Level
$62.78
Resistance Level
$71.84
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ESNT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 1th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.25
Wall Street Target
$70.88
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Profit Margin
49.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.88
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$64.95
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$65.01
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â8)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.7%)
$178.83
(+176%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 4.7%)
$74.30
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 4.7%)
$63.15
(-3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.32
Bull Case
$76.36
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.3%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$69.42
(+7%)
Market implied 7.3%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$43.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share ESNT Analysis
Share this live ESNT analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 PM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ESNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Specialty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Specialty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group HolâĻ |
BUY
13 analysts |
$51 | 33 SELL |
|
FAF
First American CorporatiâĻ |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$79 | 38 SELL |
|
AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd |
BUY
12 analysts |
$121 | 30 SELL |
|
NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc |
BUY
8 analysts |
$48 | 41 HOLD |
|
RDN
Radian Group Inc |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$43 | 35 SELL |
Advanced ESNT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ESNT price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive ESNT Research Pages
