Amentum (AMTM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMTM - Amentum Holdings, Inc.
$20.15
0.28 (1.41%)
▲
5d:
+11.14%
30d:
+2.28%
90d:
-8.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMTM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMTM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.57
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.22
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMTM is currently trading at $20.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.47 to $19.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 575.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMTM scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.33 (+45.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMTM scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.33 (+45.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.47 -
$19.84
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.6% below Wall St target ($29.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.47 -
$19.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.00
Resistance Level
$20.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.63
Wall Street Target
$29.33
(+45.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
575.0%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 9.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.82
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$17.58
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$16.42
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$20.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$64.59
(+221%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 7.2%)
$24.83
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 7.2%)
$21.10
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.85
Bull Case
$43.71
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.7
Base Case
$39.74
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$13.51
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$24.81
(+23.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMTM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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