AMTM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMTM - Amentum Holdings, Inc.
$22.20
0.47 (2.16%)
▲
5d:
-1.55%
30d:
+9.9%
90d:
-15.36%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
8d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMTM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMTM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.07
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.74
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMTM is currently trading at $22.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.37 to $22.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1236.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.68, while resistance sits at $23.47.
Market Sentiment: AMTM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.75 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.68, while resistance sits at $23.47.
Market Sentiment: AMTM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.75 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$20.37 -
$22.04
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.0% below Wall St target ($31.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.37 -
$22.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.68
Resistance Level
$23.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.00
Wall Street Target
$31.75
(+43.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1236.6%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.62
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$19.16
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$17.80
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$22.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.5%)
$86.37
(+289%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 14.5%)
$33.33
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$28.33
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$47.81
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.8
Base Case
$43.46
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.2
Bear Case
$14.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$27.75
(+25.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMTM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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