AMTM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMTM - Amentum Holdings, Inc.
$20.96
-0.10 (-0.47%)
▼
5d:
-6.51%
30d:
-9.5%
90d:
-21.62%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMTM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMTM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.68
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.75
24.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMTM is currently trading at $20.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.07 to $23.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1236.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMTM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.50 (+59.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMTM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.50 (+59.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.07 -
$23.45
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMTM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.1% below Wall St target ($33.50)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.07 -
$23.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.77
Resistance Level
$23.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.59
Wall Street Target
$33.50
(+59.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1236.6%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.95
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.06
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.35
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$21.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.4%)
$90.41
(+329%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 14.4%)
$31.50
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 14.4%)
$26.78
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$47.65
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.7
Base Case
$43.32
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.1
Bear Case
$14.73
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$28.86
(+37.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMTM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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