AutoNation (AN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$186.04
+1.90 (+1.03%)
▲
5d:
+1.4%
30d:
+19.78%
90d:
-10.73%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
29/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$155.47 – $179.42
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.9x
FAIR
vs 8.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$214.00
+16.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$162.24 / $193.92
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$292.73
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$181.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AN is currently trading at $186.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.47 to $179.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $162.24, while resistance sits at $193.92.
Market Sentiment: AN scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $214.00 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $162.24, while resistance sits at $193.92.
Market Sentiment: AN scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $214.00 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$155.47 -
$179.42
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$155.47 -
$179.42
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$162.24
Resistance Level
$193.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($214.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.87
Wall Street Target
$214.00
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.8%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$180.83
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$177.57
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$174.37
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$183.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.2%)
$674.16
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 13.2%)
$267.13
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 13.2%)
$227.06
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.80
Bull Case
$230.25
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.5%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$209.31
(+14%)
Market implied 12.5%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$126.52
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$194.22
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share AN Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AN)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
AutoNation reported Q3 earnings with a beat on EPS and revenue, despite lower vehicle sales in a sluggish demand environment. The company's after-sales segment, which accounted for half of total gross profit, saw record gross profit of $617 million and revenue of $1.29 billion.
Key Retail Themes:
Earnings beat
Record after-sales gross profit
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 2:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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