AN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AN - AutoNation, Inc.
$190.92
2.62 (1.39%)
▲
5d:
-1.28%
30d:
+2.41%
90d:
+0.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$324.95
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$201.77
5.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AN is currently trading at $190.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $185.18 to $193.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $184.98, while resistance sits at $197.76.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $242.75 (+28.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $184.98, while resistance sits at $197.76.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $242.75 (+28.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$185.18 -
$193.54
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.9% below Wall St target ($242.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$185.18 -
$193.54
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.98
Resistance Level
$197.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.76
Wall Street Target
$242.75
(+28.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.5%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$180.77
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$173.54
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$166.60
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$189.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$776.10
(+312%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$276.35
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 13.6%)
$234.90
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.44
Bull Case
$273.36
(+45%)
Analyst growth 31.7%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$248.51
(+32%)
Market implied 31.7%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$128.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$213.66
(+13.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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