AutoNation (AN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AN - AutoNation, Inc.
$158.89
5.88 (3.84%)
▲
5d:
-0.57%
30d:
-3.73%
90d:
-23.68%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$294.81
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$183.05
13.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AN is currently trading at $158.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.95 to $178.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.5) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 138.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $151.82, while resistance sits at $168.22. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: AN scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.67 (+43.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $151.82, while resistance sits at $168.22. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: AN scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.67 (+43.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$151.95 -
$178.69
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.6% below Wall St target ($219.67)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 67/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.95 -
$178.69
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$151.82
Resistance Level
$168.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.48
Wall Street Target
$219.67
(+43.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
138.5%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.46
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$128.95
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$118.37
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$153.38
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.6%)
$668.74
(+337%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 12.6%)
$218.28
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 12.6%)
$185.54
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $21.59
Bull Case
$194.69
(+27%)
Analyst growth 9.3%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$176.99
(+16%)
Market implied 9.3%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$110.09
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.5 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$198.27
(+29.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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