AN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AN - AutoNation, Inc.
$199.49
-0.60 (-0.30%)
▼
5d:
-4.74%
30d:
-2.74%
90d:
+7.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$322.70
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$200.37
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AN is currently trading at $199.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $201.21 to $215.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 138.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $196.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AN scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.69 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $196.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AN scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.69 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$201.21 -
$215.63
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($246.69)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$201.21 -
$215.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$196.46
Resistance Level
$212.44
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.05
Wall Street Target
$246.69
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
138.5%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$194.90
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$190.42
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$186.04
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$198.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.4%)
$725.72
(+264%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$291.06
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 13.4%)
$247.40
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $21.53
Bull Case
$253.36
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.1%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$230.33
(+16%)
Market implied 15.1%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$136.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$213.14
(+6.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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