Angel Oak Mortgage REIT (AOMR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$6.20
-0.04 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
-1.27%
30d:
-13.65%
90d:
-30.42%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$6.56 – $7.42
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
4.7x
CHEAP
vs 6.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$9.15
+47.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$5.94 / $7.40
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AOMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.27
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.62
18.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $6.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.56 to $7.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.7) compared to its historical average (6.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 366.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.94, while resistance sits at $7.40.
Market Sentiment: AOMR scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.15 (+47.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.94, while resistance sits at $7.40.
Market Sentiment: AOMR scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.15 (+47.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.56 -
$7.42
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$6.56 -
$7.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$5.94
Resistance Level
$7.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.6% below Wall St target ($9.15)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.73
Wall Street Target
$9.15
(+47.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
366.6%
Profit Margin
-86.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.7 vs 6.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.70
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$5.24
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$4.81
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$6.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.0%)
$38.61
(+523%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.7, Growth: 14.0%)
$9.19
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.0, Growth: 14.0%)
$7.81
(+26%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.7 to 6.1
Stabilization Target:
$8.00
(+29.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AOMR)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Jan 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on AOMR are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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