AOMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$8.89
0.29 (3.37%)
▲
5d:
+4.47%
30d:
+9.35%
90d:
+7.24%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AOMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AOMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.13
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.39
5.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $8.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.16 to $8.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.4) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AOMR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.75 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AOMR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.75 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.16 -
$8.53
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.9% below Wall St target ($10.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with -60.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.16 -
$8.53
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.28
Resistance Level
$8.96
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.37
Wall Street Target
$10.75
(+20.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.3%
Profit Margin
45.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.92
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$8.94
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$8.97
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.87
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.2%)
$51.51
(+480%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 19.2%)
$15.07
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 19.2%)
$12.81
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$19.18
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$17.44
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$5.93
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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