AOMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$8.46
0.22 (2.67%)
▲
5d:
-5.37%
30d:
-3.86%
90d:
+4.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AOMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AOMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.38
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $8.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.70 to $9.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 366.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.55 (+28.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.55 (+28.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.70 -
$9.07
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.0% below Wall St target ($10.55)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.70 -
$9.07
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.22
Resistance Level
$9.11
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.85
Wall Street Target
$10.55
(+28.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
366.6%
Profit Margin
51.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.03
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$7.82
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$7.61
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$8.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.2%)
$41.06
(+398%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 13.2%)
$11.96
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 13.2%)
$10.17
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.73
Bull Case
$18.52
(+125%)
Analyst growth 93.1%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$16.83
(+104%)
Market implied 93.1%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$5.93
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 6.3
Stabilization Target:
$8.88
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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