Angel Oak Mortgage REIT (AOMR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$8.07
0.07 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-0.37%
30d:
-8.5%
90d:
-4.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AOMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AOMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.38
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.31
2.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $8.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.11 to $8.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 366.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $7.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.55 (+30.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $7.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.55 (+30.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.11 -
$8.78
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.7% below Wall St target ($10.55)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.11 -
$8.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.94
Resistance Level
$8.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.73
Wall Street Target
$10.55
(+30.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
366.6%
Profit Margin
51.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.83
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$7.59
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$7.37
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$8.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.2%)
$41.32
(+412%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 13.2%)
$11.71
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 13.2%)
$9.96
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.74
Bull Case
$16.76
(+108%)
Analyst growth 90.4%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$15.24
(+89%)
Market implied 90.4%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$5.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.3
Stabilization Target:
$8.88
(+10.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 17, 2026 9:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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