Angel Oak Mortgage REIT (AOMR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$7.10
-0.10 (-1.39%)
▼
5d:
+1.72%
30d:
-10.47%
90d:
-19.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AOMR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 367% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AOMR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 367% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.86
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.99
11.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $7.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.11 to $7.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 366.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AOMR scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.35 (+45.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AOMR scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.35 (+45.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.11 -
$7.79
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (82/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.8% below Wall St target ($10.35)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 82/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.11 -
$7.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.96
Resistance Level
$7.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.07
Wall Street Target
$10.35
(+45.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
366.6%
Profit Margin
51.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 6.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.65
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$6.23
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$5.84
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$7.15
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.4%)
$39.52
(+457%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 12.4%)
$10.08
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$8.57
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.73
Bull Case
$15.20
(+114%)
Analyst growth 92.0%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$13.82
(+95%)
Market implied 92.0%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$4.90
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$8.69
(+22.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 9:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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