AOUT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOUT - American Outdoor Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$14.21
-0.13 (-0.91%)
▼
5d:
-0.49%
30d:
+38.77%
90d:
+48.48%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AOUT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AOUT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOUT is currently trading at $14.21, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.77 to $13.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 37.4) compared to its historical average (24.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 15.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOUT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.54, while resistance sits at $14.97.
Market Sentiment: AOUT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOUT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.54, while resistance sits at $14.97.
Market Sentiment: AOUT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.77 -
$13.32
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.7% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 15.0% growth with -24.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.77 -
$13.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.76
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.54
Resistance Level
$14.97
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.39
Wall Street Target
$14.25
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-24.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
-4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+15.0% premium
PE vs Historical
37.4 vs 24.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+15.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.34
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$18.79
(+32%)
3-Year Target
$21.61
(+52%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.22
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.4, Growth: 162.1%)
$47.96
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 162.1%)
$27.93
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 162.1%)
$23.74
(+67%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOUT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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