American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOUT - American Outdoor Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$15.68
0.65 (4.32%)
▲
5d:
+56.64%
30d:
+23.17%
90d:
+52.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: AOUT is 19.9% above its trading range ($13.08). Market expects 16.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: AOUT is 19.9% above its trading range ($13.08). Market expects 16.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOUT is currently trading at $15.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.61 to $13.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 41.3) compared to its historical average (26.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 16.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOUT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AOUT scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOUT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AOUT scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.61 -
$13.08
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+19.9% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 16.0% growth with 25.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.61 -
$13.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.74
Resistance Level
$16.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.26
Wall Street Target
$16.50
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
-2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+16.0% premium
PE vs Historical
41.3 vs 26.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+16.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.19
(+16%)
2-Year Target
$21.10
(+35%)
3-Year Target
$24.47
(+56%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.66
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.3, Growth: 162.1%)
$52.92
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 162.1%)
$25.87
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 162.1%)
$21.99
(+40%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOUT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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