Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$4.95
0.03 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
-7.99%
30d:
-8.67%
90d:
-12.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $5.68 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 9.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PTON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PTON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.14
30.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $4.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.08 to $5.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PTON scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.90 (+59.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PTON scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.90 (+59.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.08 -
$5.88
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PTON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.6% below Wall St target ($7.90)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.08 -
$5.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.91
Resistance Level
$5.58
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.36
Wall Street Target
$7.90
(+59.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 20.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.67
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$4.40
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$4.15
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$4.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 121.1%)
$19.41
(+292%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 121.1%)
$16.71
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 121.1%)
$14.20
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.14
Bull Case
$10.82
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.7
Base Case
$9.84
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.1
Bear Case
$3.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$5.90
(+19.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PTON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles Peter Kirol
SELL
3670 shares
2026-04-20
Charles Peter Kirol
SELL
19806 shares
2026-04-16
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
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Advanced PTON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PTON price and gamma walls.
