PTON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$5.56
0.14 (2.58%)
▲
5d:
+1.0%
30d:
-12.16%
90d:
+5.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $5.68 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PTON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PTON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.21
22.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $5.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.73 to $6.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.5) is in line with its historical norms (20.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.37, while resistance sits at $6.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.03 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.37, while resistance sits at $6.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.03 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.73 -
$6.45
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PTON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.5% below Wall St target ($8.03)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.73 -
$6.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.37
Resistance Level
$6.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.50
Wall Street Target
$8.03
(+44.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 20.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.43
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5.31
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$5.19
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$5.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 121.1%)
$19.47
(+250%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 121.1%)
$18.77
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 121.1%)
$15.95
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.14
Bull Case
$11.92
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.6
Base Case
$10.84
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.7
Bear Case
$3.69
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 20.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.96
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 10:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PTON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles Peter Kirol
SELL
3670 shares
2026-04-20
Charles Peter Kirol
SELL
19806 shares
2026-04-16
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
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Advanced PTON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PTON price and gamma walls.
