Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$5.42
0.17 (3.34%)
▲
5d:
+1.59%
30d:
+12.81%
90d:
-10.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 7, 2026 at $4.85 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
Get Alerted When PTON Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PTON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PTON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.97
22.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $5.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.85 to $5.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.4) is in line with its historical norms (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PTON scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.90 (+50.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PTON scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.90 (+50.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.85 -
$5.21
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PTON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 50.8% below Wall St target ($7.90)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.85 -
$5.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.80
Resistance Level
$5.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.37
Wall Street Target
$7.90
(+50.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 20.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.08
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$4.92
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$4.77
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$5.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 121.1%)
$19.12
(+265%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 121.1%)
$17.69
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 121.1%)
$15.03
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.14
Bull Case
$11.99
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.8
Base Case
$10.90
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.9
Bear Case
$3.71
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$5.76
(+9.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 1:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:13 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PTON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Leisure Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Leisure by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AS
Amer Sports, Inc. |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$47 | 41 HOLD |
|
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings… |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$56 | 52 HOLD |
|
YETI
YETI Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$54 | 53 HOLD |
|
HAS
Hasbro Inc |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$111 | 48 HOLD |
|
PLNT
Planet Fitness Inc |
BUY
18 analysts |
$65 | 27 SELL |
Advanced PTON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PTON price and gamma walls.
