PTON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$6.39
0.01 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
+5.1%
30d:
+8.31%
90d:
+17.25%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PTON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PTON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.24
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $6.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.72 to $6.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (20.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.99, while resistance sits at $6.73.
Market Sentiment: PTON has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.09 (+26.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.99, while resistance sits at $6.73.
Market Sentiment: PTON has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.09 (+26.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.72 -
$6.35
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.7% below Wall St target ($8.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.72 -
$6.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.99
Resistance Level
$6.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.31
Wall Street Target
$8.09
(+26.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 20.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.53
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$6.67
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$6.82
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 118.8%)
$21.57
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 118.8%)
$20.04
(+214%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 118.8%)
$17.03
(+167%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 21.98 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.29
Bull Case
$7.72
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$6.39
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$4.89
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PTON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles Peter Kirol
SELL
3670 shares
2026-04-20
Charles Peter Kirol
SELL
19806 shares
2026-04-16
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
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Advanced PTON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PTON price and gamma walls.
