American Public Education (APEI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$42.28
+2.08 (+5.17%)
▲
5d:
-0.31%
30d:
-12.7%
90d:
-6.54%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (90%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$41.50 – $48.86
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.3x
CHEAP
vs 13.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$60.50
+43.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
56th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$36.15 / $45.00
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APEI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.50
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.95
23.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APEI is currently trading at $42.28, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.50 to $48.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APEI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.15, while resistance sits at $45.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: APEI scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.50 (+43.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APEI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.15, while resistance sits at $45.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: APEI scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.50 (+43.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$41.50 -
$48.86
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
56th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$41.50 -
$48.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.92
(9.3%)
Support Level
$36.15
Resistance Level
$45.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 56th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.1% below Wall St target ($60.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 78/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.30
Wall Street Target
$60.50
(+43.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 13.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.40
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$36.73
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$34.23
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$42.09
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.7%)
$124.32
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 18.7%)
$70.76
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 18.7%)
$60.15
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.50
Bull Case
$66.15
(+57%)
Analyst growth 49.6%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$60.14
(+42%)
Market implied 49.6%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$27.34
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$51.99
(+23.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (APEI)
Bearish
4 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
4 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2025
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investors expressed bearish sentiment towards $APEI following the company's Q4 and FY2025 sales guidance misses in an update. American Public Education now expects Q4 GAAP EPS between $0.32 and $0.45 and sales between $150.000M and $153.500M, below estimates of $0.63 and $156.106M, respectively.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings miss
sales guidance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APEI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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