American Public Education (APEI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APEI - American Public Education, Inc.
$44.94
0.08 (0.18%)
â˛
5d:
-0.97%
30d:
-0.42%
90d:
-16.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: APEI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: APEI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.90
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.51
30.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APEI is currently trading at $44.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.92 to $48.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 129.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APEI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+39.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APEI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+39.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$43.92 -
$48.97
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APEI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.8% below Wall St target ($62.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.92 -
$48.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$2.44
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.54
Resistance Level
$47.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.95
Wall Street Target
$62.83
(+39.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
129.3%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 14.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.24
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$39.71
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$37.33
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â14)
$44.97
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 24.3%)
$145.64
(+224%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 24.3%)
$86.30
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 24.3%)
$73.36
(+63%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.46
Bull Case
$75.42
(+68%)
Analyst growth 52.8%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$68.57
(+53%)
Market implied 52.8%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$30.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$54.14
(+20.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APEI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
325 Capital Llc
SELL
65000 shares
2026-03-20
325 Capital Llc
SELL
95512 shares
2026-03-19
Nuno S Fernandes
SELL
1100 shares
2026-03-19
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Advanced APEI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APEI price and gamma walls.