ARCOS DORADOS (ARCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$6.87
-0.19 (-2.69%)
▼
5d:
+0.88%
30d:
-11.47%
90d:
-13.04%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
TODAY
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
62/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$6.97 – $8.05
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.8x
CHEAP
vs 10.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$10.84
+57.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$6.69 / $7.20
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARCO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.6% annual earnings decline despite 99% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.51
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.77
11.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARCO is currently trading at $6.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.97 to $8.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 99.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARCO scores 90/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.84 (+57.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARCO scores 90/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.84 (+57.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.97 -
$8.05
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$6.97 -
$8.05
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$6.69
Resistance Level
$7.20
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (90/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.8% below Wall St target ($10.84)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 90/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.81
Wall Street Target
$10.84
(+57.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
99.3%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 10.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.28
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$5.74
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$5.25
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$6.85
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.8%)
$23.12
(+237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$9.09
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 9.8%)
$7.73
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.22
Bull Case
$5.60
(-19%)
Analyst growth -27.9%, PE expands to 6.4
Base Case
$5.09
(-26%)
Market implied -27.9%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$4.80
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$8.97
(+30.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ARCO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
One bullish StockTwits message suggests good value for $ARCO
Key Retail Themes:
bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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