What is the fair value of SBUX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SBUX to be between $103.89 and $107.13. The current price is $107.08.

What is the analyst price target for SBUX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SBUX is $112.23. This implies a potential upside of 6.9% from current levels.

SBUX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SBUX - Starbucks Corp

RETAIL-EATING & DRINKING PLACES

$107.08

3.09 (2.97%) ▲

5d: -0.57%

30d: +3.75%

90d: +2.83%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 29, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $107.92 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 5.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: SBUX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 20.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$136.91

Based on 12.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$85.01

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SBUX is currently trading at $107.08, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.89 to $107.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.7) is in line with its historical norms (33.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SBUX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $102.97, while resistance sits at $110.51.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $103.89 - $107.13

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 61.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($112.23)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $103.89 - $107.13

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $102.97

Resistance Level $110.51

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 33.71

Wall Street Target $112.23 (+6.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -1.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 85.7%

Profit Margin 5.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.6% premium

PE vs Historical 33.7 vs 33.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $105.61 (+1%)

2-Year Target $106.24 (+1%)

3-Year Target $106.88 (+2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 34→33) PE COMPRESSION $104.94 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 33.7, Growth: 20.2%) $182.35 (+74%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 20.2%) $108.56 (+3%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 20.2%) $92.28 (-12%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 36.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.94

Bull Case $129.30 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.2

Base Case $107.08 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.4

Bear Case $81.92 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 4:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Brady Brewer SELL 588 shares 2026-04-17

Jim Banks SELL 2026-04-15

Brady Brewer SELL 1641 shares 2026-04-06

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