SBUX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBUX - Starbucks Corp
$105.25
-0.60 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
+1.94%
30d:
+1.8%
90d:
-0.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SBUX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SBUX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBUX is currently trading at $105.25, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $102.49 to $105.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.1) is in line with its historical norms (33.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBUX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $101.93, while resistance sits at $108.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBUX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $101.93, while resistance sits at $108.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$102.49 -
$105.96
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($106.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$102.49 -
$105.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.93
Resistance Level
$108.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.14
Wall Street Target
$106.45
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
35.1 vs 33.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.07
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$110.34
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$112.66
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$105.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.1, Growth: 26.1%)
$212.21
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 26.1%)
$125.68
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 26.1%)
$106.83
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 34.97 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.01
Bull Case
$127.09
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.7
Base Case
$105.25
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 35.0
Bear Case
$80.52
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBUX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brady Brewer
SELL
588 shares
2026-04-17
Jim Banks
SELL
2026-04-15
Brady Brewer
SELL
1641 shares
2026-04-06
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