Starbucks (SBUX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$107.26
-2.63 (-2.39%)
▼
5d:
+1.04%
30d:
+15.02%
90d:
-0.4%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
Protect SBUX Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
36/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$94.94 – $106.72
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
34.3x
FAIR
vs 32.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$111.07
+3.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$102.24 / $111.50
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SBUX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $93.21 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.88
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBUX is currently trading at $107.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.94 to $106.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.3) is in line with its historical norms (32.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBUX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $102.23, while resistance sits at $111.50.
Market Sentiment: SBUX scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBUX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $102.23, while resistance sits at $111.50.
Market Sentiment: SBUX scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$94.94 -
$106.72
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$94.94 -
$106.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$102.24
Resistance Level
$111.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding SBUX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($111.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.31
Wall Street Target
$111.07
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
405.4%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
34.3 vs 32.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.87
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$110.50
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$112.16
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$107.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.3, Growth: 20.0%)
$185.20
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$107.21
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$91.13
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.21
Bull Case
$171.01
(+59%)
Analyst growth 41.5%, PE expands to 54.7
Base Case
$155.47
(+45%)
Market implied 41.5%, PE stable at 49.7
Bear Case
$74.73
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SBUX)
Bearish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
3 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Robert Irvine discusses his role in modernizing Army dining facilities, expressing optimism despite challenges. Bullish sentiment dominates StockTwits with $SBUX and $CMG mentions.
Key Retail Themes:
military dining modernization
Robert Irvine's role
Starbucks and Chipotle mentioned
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBUX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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