ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$6.42
0.08 (1.18%)
â˛
5d:
+0.08%
30d:
+2.48%
90d:
-5.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 22.9% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 22.9% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.77
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $6.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.22 to $6.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.9) compared to its historical average (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 22.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.22 -
$6.43
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($8.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 22.9% growth with 524.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.22 -
$6.43
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.20
Resistance Level
$6.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.93
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
524.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+22.9% premium
PE vs Historical
27.9 vs 15.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+22.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.79
(+23%)
2-Year Target
$9.58
(+51%)
3-Year Target
$11.77
(+86%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28â15)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$3.50
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$3.19
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$4.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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