ARI
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS
Best REITs Stocks 2026 →
ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$2.32
-0.09 (-3.73%)
▼
5d:
-0.43%
30d:
-62.82%
90d:
-65.11%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
TODAY
Updated Nov 6, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (86%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$3.96 – $7.13
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.2x
CHEAP
vs 15.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$8.00
+244.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$2.26 / $6.69
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.87
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.02
23.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $2.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.96 to $7.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+244.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+244.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.96 -
$7.13
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$3.96 -
$7.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$2.26
Resistance Level
$6.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 6, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 244.8% below Wall St target ($8.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.22
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+244.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
524.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.09
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.88
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→15)
$2.53
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.77
Bull Case
$1.33
(-43%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 3.4
Base Case
$1.21
(-48%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 3.1
Bear Case
$1.64
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.47
(+49.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.7%
Share ARI Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ARI)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish trader on StockTwits expresses confidence in a short-term turnaround for $ARI, intending to leverage their position five times.
Key Retail Themes:
trader confidence in short-term turnaround
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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