ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$6.28
0.08 (1.29%)
▲
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
-7.78%
90d:
-39.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.52
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $6.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.33 to $6.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.7) compared to its historical average (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 25.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.33 -
$6.84
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($8.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 25.0% growth with 524.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.33 -
$6.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.13
Resistance Level
$6.51
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.67
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
524.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+25.0% premium
PE vs Historical
27.7 vs 14.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+25.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.85
(+25%)
2-Year Target
$9.81
(+56%)
3-Year Target
$12.27
(+95%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.30
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$3.41
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$3.10
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$4.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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