ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$6.83
-0.08 (-1.16%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.04%
30d:
-2.71%
90d:
-37.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 20.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 20.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2.27
Based on -9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $6.83, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.13 to $9.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.1) compared to its historical average (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 20.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$6.13 -
$9.31
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 20.5% growth with 524.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.13 -
$9.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.61
Resistance Level
$7.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.09
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
524.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.3%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+20.5% premium
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 11.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+20.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.23
(+21%)
2-Year Target
$9.92
(+45%)
3-Year Target
$11.95
(+75%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -23.6%)
$5.01
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -23.6%)
$4.98
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: -23.6%)
$2.85
(-58%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$3.80
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$3.46
(-49%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$4.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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