ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$10.90
0.14 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
+2.2%
30d:
-0.5%
90d:
+4.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ARI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.88
15.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $10.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.79 to $10.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.79 -
$10.98
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.79 -
$10.98
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.63
Resistance Level
$11.04
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.50
Wall Street Target
$11.63
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
47.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.77
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$10.79
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$10.81
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 105.3%)
$68.69
(+539%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 105.3%)
$36.28
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 105.3%)
$30.84
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.81
Bull Case
$13.74
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$12.49
(+16%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$7.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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