ARKO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARKO - ARKO Corp. Common Stock
$7.67
-0.04 (-0.58%)
▼
5d:
-3.83%
30d:
+0.46%
90d:
+37.12%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Get Alerted When ARKO Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARKO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 20.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARKO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 20.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.79
35.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARKO is currently trading at $7.67, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.10 to $8.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.8) compared to its historical average (39.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARKO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.37, while resistance sits at $8.76.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.50 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARKO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.37, while resistance sits at $8.76.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.50 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$7.10 -
$8.04
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.10 -
$8.04
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.37
Resistance Level
$8.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.77
Wall Street Target
$8.50
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.9%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 39.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.25
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.62
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→40)
$11.23
(+46%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 34.5%)
$20.66
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 34.5%)
$18.75
(+143%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 34.5%)
$15.94
(+107%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$16.00
(+108%)
Analyst growth 95.0%, PE expands to 41.0
Base Case
$14.55
(+89%)
Market implied 95.0%, PE stable at 37.3
Bear Case
$5.07
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.8 to 39.5
Stabilization Target:
$15.40
(+99.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+99.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 3:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ARKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Charles Galagher Jeff
BUY
40000 shares
2026-03-17
Top Rated Specialty Retail Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Specialty Retail by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company |
BUY
30 analysts |
$45 | 56 HOLD |
|
DKS
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc |
BUY
26 analysts |
$249 | 63 BUY |
|
ULTA
Ulta Beauty Inc |
HOLD
28 analysts |
$627 | 59 HOLD |
|
BBY
Best Buy Co. Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$79 | 61 BUY |
|
MNSO
Miniso Group Holding Ltd |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$20 | 61 BUY |
