Is TSCO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSCO is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TSCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TSCO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSCO to be between $33.74 and $35.64. The current price is $33.01.

What is the analyst price target for TSCO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSCO is $35.63. This implies a potential upside of 7.9% from current levels.

Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSCO - Tractor Supply Co

RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

$33.01

-0.51 (-1.52%) ▼

5d: -4.6%

30d: -9.39%

90d: +5.6%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TSCO Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $34.99 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 9.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$50.65

Based on 6.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$31.45

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $33.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.74 to $35.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $33.74 - $35.64

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.63)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $33.74 - $35.64

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $32.90

Resistance Level $35.82

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.14

Wall Street Target $35.63 (+7.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -15.0%

Profit Margin 6.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.1 vs 18.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $31.85 (-4%)

2-Year Target $30.74 (-7%)

3-Year Target $29.66 (-10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→18) $33.09 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.2%) $53.80 (+63%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 9.2%) $43.04 (+30%)

Bear: (PE: 13.7, Growth: 9.2%) $36.59 (+11%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 17.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89

Bull Case $39.91 (+21%)

Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 19.5

Base Case $36.28 (+10%)

Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 17.7

Bear Case $22.79 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 18.0

Stabilization Target: $36.82 (+11.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +11.5%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:16 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

April McClain Delaney BUY 2026-03-31

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.

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