Is TSCO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSCO is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TSCO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSCO to be between $31.80 and $33.46. The current price is $34.73.

What is the analyst price target for TSCO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSCO is $35.85. This implies a potential upside of 3.2% from current levels.

Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSCO - Tractor Supply Co

RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

$34.73

2.04 (6.24%) ▲

5d: +4.08%

30d: +7.56%

90d: +11.96%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TSCO Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 19, 2026 at $33.22 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 11.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$51.60

Based on 7.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$32.04

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $34.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.80 to $33.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.2) is in line with its historical norms (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $31.80 - $33.46

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 51.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.2%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.85)
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $31.80 - $33.46

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $29.90

Resistance Level $35.03

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.20

Wall Street Target $35.85 (+3.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -15.0%

Profit Margin 6.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.2 vs 17.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $34.42 (-1%)

2-Year Target $34.11 (-2%)

3-Year Target $33.80 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→18) $34.79 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.3%) $55.29 (+59%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 11.3%) $47.88 (+38%)

Bear: (PE: 14.6, Growth: 11.3%) $40.70 (+17%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 17.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92

Bull Case $38.41 (+18%)

Analyst growth 6.1%, PE expands to 18.9

Base Case $34.91 (+7%)

Market implied 6.1%, PE stable at 17.1

Bear Case $22.38 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 17.7

Stabilization Target: $35.74 (+2.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.9%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.

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