Is TSCO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSCO is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TSCO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSCO to be between $29.85 and $32.44. The current price is $34.56.

What is the analyst price target for TSCO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSCO is $35.52. This implies a potential upside of 2.8% from current levels.

TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSCO - Tractor Supply Co

RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

$34.56

0.47 (1.38%) ▲

5d: +12.32%

30d: +14.74%

90d: +8.88%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TSCO Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $34.56 · last confirmed Aug 7, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 9.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$50.93

Based on 6.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$31.62

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $34.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.85 to $32.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: TSCO has a weak technical setup (15/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $29.85 - $32.44

Company Quality Score 42/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 19.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.52)
WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $29.85 - $32.44

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $29.46

Resistance Level $34.59

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 7, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.89

Wall Street Target $35.52 (+2.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -15.0%

Profit Margin 6.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.9 vs 18.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $33.80 (-2%)

2-Year Target $33.06 (-4%)

3-Year Target $32.33 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→18) $34.64 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.2%) $53.96 (+56%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.2%) $45.06 (+30%)

Bear: (PE: 14.4, Growth: 9.2%) $38.30 (+11%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 17.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92

Bull Case $39.95 (+16%)

Analyst growth 6.5%, PE expands to 19.5

Base Case $36.32 (+5%)

Market implied 6.5%, PE stable at 17.8

Bear Case $23.18 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 18.1

Stabilization Target: $37.03 (+7.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +7.1%

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Last updated: August 08, 2026 5:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

April McClain Delaney BUY 2026-03-31

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

April McClain Delaney BUY 2026-03-16

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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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