TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co
$30.24
-0.19 (-0.62%)
▼
5d:
+0.07%
30d:
-1.72%
90d:
-32.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
9d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.07
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.43
14.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $30.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.77 to $31.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.36, while resistance sits at $31.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.59 (+46.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.36, while resistance sits at $31.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.59 (+46.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.77 -
$31.22
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.5% below Wall St target ($44.59)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.77 -
$31.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.36
Resistance Level
$31.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.28
Wall Street Target
$44.59
(+46.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 18.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.39
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$24.65
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$22.18
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→18)
$30.74
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$63.73
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 8.5%)
$38.85
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 8.5%)
$33.02
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.07
Bull Case
$36.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$33.35
(+10%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$20.48
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.17
(+38.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-31
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.
