ARLO
Arlo Technologies, Inc.
HOUSEHOLD AUDIO & VIDEO EQUIPMENT
Arlo Technologies (ARLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$12.29
-0.03 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
-19.25%
30d:
+1.82%
90d:
-14.36%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect ARLO Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$11.91 – $13.83
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.8x
CHEAP
vs 14.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$20.33
+65.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$11.68 / $15.64
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ARLO is down 19.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.57
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.25
19.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $12.29, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.91 to $13.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.68, while resistance sits at $15.64.
Market Sentiment: ARLO scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.33 (+65.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.68, while resistance sits at $15.64.
Market Sentiment: ARLO scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.33 (+65.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.91 -
$13.83
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$11.91 -
$13.83
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$11.68
Resistance Level
$15.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 65.4% below Wall St target ($20.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.83
Wall Street Target
$20.33
(+65.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-86.7%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 14.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.16
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$10.13
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$9.20
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$12.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.8%)
$32.32
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 12.8%)
$17.63
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 12.8%)
$14.99
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 12.27 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.00
Bull Case
$14.84
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$12.29
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$9.40
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$16.45
(+33.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ARLO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on $ARLO continues to grow as one trader expresses optimism about the stock reaching $15 by 2035.
Key Retail Themes:
Long-term price target
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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