Arlo Technologies (ARLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$12.60
0.45 (3.70%)
▲
5d:
+1.29%
30d:
-7.76%
90d:
-2.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.17
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $12.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.17 to $13.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARLO scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.67 (+64.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARLO scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.67 (+64.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.17 -
$13.25
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 64.0% below Wall St target ($20.67)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.17 -
$13.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.64
Resistance Level
$12.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.28
Wall Street Target
$20.67
(+64.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.7%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.91
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$11.25
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$10.63
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$12.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$25.87
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 8.3%)
$16.00
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$13.60
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.27
Bull Case
$26.73
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.5
Base Case
$24.30
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.0
Bear Case
$8.26
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$14.98
(+18.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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