ARLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$12.88
-0.34 (-2.57%)
▼
5d:
-2.5%
30d:
+1.18%
90d:
-12.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.45
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.80
18.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $12.88, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.64 to $13.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.15, while resistance sits at $13.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.40 (+61.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.15, while resistance sits at $13.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.40 (+61.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.64 -
$13.33
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.9% below Wall St target ($21.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.64 -
$13.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.15
Resistance Level
$13.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.38
Wall Street Target
$21.40
(+61.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.60
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$12.01
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$11.44
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$13.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$35.01
(+165%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$21.51
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$18.28
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$28.73
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.3
Base Case
$26.12
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.6
Bear Case
$8.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$15.31
(+15.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 12:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-17
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-06
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
179419 shares
2026-03-12
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