Arlo Technologies (ARLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$13.19
0.19 (1.46%)
▲
5d:
-2.15%
30d:
-5.31%
90d:
+3.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.59
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $13.19, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.95 to $14.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.38, while resistance sits at $14.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+59.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.38, while resistance sits at $14.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+59.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$12.95 -
$14.85
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.2% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.95 -
$14.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.38
Resistance Level
$14.38
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.86
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+59.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.7%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.56
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$11.95
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$11.38
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$13.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$26.28
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$16.75
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$14.24
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$28.60
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.1
Base Case
$26.00
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.4
Bear Case
$8.84
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$15.28
(+15.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-17
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-06
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARLO price and gamma walls.
