Carrier Global (CARR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CARR - Carrier Global Corporation
$56.47
0.30 (0.53%)
▲
5d:
+4.11%
30d:
+2.19%
90d:
-18.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CARR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CARR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
CARR is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; CARR has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-21.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.73
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.93
8.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CARR is currently trading at $56.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.58 to $56.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.1) compared to its historical average (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CARR scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.01 (+29.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CARR scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.01 (+29.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$54.58 -
$56.04
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.3% below Wall St target ($73.01)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.58 -
$56.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.58
Resistance Level
$56.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.07
Wall Street Target
$73.01
(+29.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 19.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.27
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$52.15
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$50.12
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$56.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.8%)
$99.38
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 14.8%)
$85.43
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 14.8%)
$72.62
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.38
Bull Case
$123.57
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.8
Base Case
$112.34
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.7
Bear Case
$38.20
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.1 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$63.84
(+13.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CARR price and gamma walls.
