CARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CARR - Carrier Global Corporation

AIR-COND & WARM AIR HEATG EQUIP & COMM & INDL REFRIG EQUIP
$60.37
0.22 (0.37%) ▲
5d: -3.84%
30d: -12.7%
90d: -2.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $62.56 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CARR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.26
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.50
4.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CARR is currently trading at $60.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.66 to $67.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.3) is in line with its historical norms (19.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CARR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.82 (+28.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $61.66 - $67.99
Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 28.9% below Wall St target ($77.82)
  • WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $61.66 - $67.99
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $59.90
Resistance Level $64.73
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.26
Wall Street Target $77.82 (+28.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -11.8%
Profit Margin 5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History -2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical 18.3 vs 19.8 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -2.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $58.80 (-3%)
2-Year Target $57.27 (-5%)
3-Year Target $55.78 (-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→20) $60.48 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.8%) $100.26 (+66%)
Base: (SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 14.8%) $91.22 (+51%)
Bear: (PE: 15.5, Growth: 14.8%) $77.54 (+28%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.38
Bull Case $132.33 (+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.0
Base Case $120.30 (+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.6
Bear Case $40.90 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 19.8
Stabilization Target: $65.46 (+8.4%)
PE Expansion Potential: +8.4%
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Last updated: August 22, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check

Is CARR showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Rick Larsen BUY 2026-04-07

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Advanced CARR Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CARR price and gamma walls.

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