Arrow Financial (AROW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AROW - Arrow Financial Corp
$38.16
0.97 (2.61%)
▲
5d:
+3.7%
30d:
+3.22%
90d:
-3.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
Get Alerted When AROW Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AROW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AROW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.97
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.07
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AROW is currently trading at $38.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.69 to $38.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AROW scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+17.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AROW scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+17.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.69 -
$38.03
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AROW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.69 -
$38.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.82
(4.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.66
Resistance Level
$38.33
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.63
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+17.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Profit Margin
30.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.82
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$36.45
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$36.09
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$37.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 22.6%)
$157.77
(+324%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 22.6%)
$68.59
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 22.6%)
$58.30
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.05
Bull Case
$58.24
(+57%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$52.95
(+42%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$25.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$38.34
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$62 | 67 BUY |
|
NU
Nu Holdings Ltd |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$19 | 48 HOLD |
|
KEY
KeyCorp |
BUY
20 analysts |
$25 | 64 BUY |
|
EWBC
East West Bancorp Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$148 | 59 HOLD |
|
UMBF
UMB Financial Corporation |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$164 | 57 HOLD |
Advanced AROW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AROW price and gamma walls.
