AROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AROW - Arrow Financial Corp
$39.84
-0.10 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
+0.99%
30d:
-5.3%
90d:
+8.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: AROW shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 4th percentile) and market pricing in only 1.4% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: AROW shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 4th percentile) and market pricing in only 1.4% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.99
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.46
8.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AROW is currently trading at $39.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.96 to $41.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.51, while resistance sits at $42.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.51, while resistance sits at $42.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.96 -
$41.49
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.96 -
$41.49
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.06
(2.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.51
Resistance Level
$42.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.28
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Profit Margin
30.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.40
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.96
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$41.54
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 22.1%)
$161.94
(+307%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 22.1%)
$72.49
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 22.1%)
$61.62
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$61.04
(+53%)
Analyst growth 38.9%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$55.49
(+39%)
Market implied 38.9%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$27.16
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AROW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AROW price and gamma walls.
