AROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AROW - Arrow Financial Corp
$38.48
0.15 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
-1.96%
30d:
-1.69%
90d:
+4.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AROW is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AROW is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.99
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.46
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AROW is currently trading at $38.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.82 to $40.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.95, while resistance sits at $39.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+12.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.95, while resistance sits at $39.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+12.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.82 -
$40.94
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
46th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AROW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 46th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (46/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.82 -
$40.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.37
(6.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.95
Resistance Level
$39.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.96
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Profit Margin
30.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.52
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$38.56
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$38.60
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 22.1%)
$156.79
(+307%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 22.1%)
$70.02
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 22.1%)
$59.51
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.11
Bull Case
$58.21
(+51%)
Analyst growth 38.0%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$52.91
(+38%)
Market implied 38.0%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$26.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AROW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AROW price and gamma walls.
