Arrow Financial (AROW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AROW - Arrow Financial Corp
$39.15
0.08 (0.20%)
▲
5d:
-0.76%
30d:
+0.05%
90d:
+2.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AROW is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AROW is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.97
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.07
11.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AROW is currently trading at $39.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.13 to $39.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+11.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+11.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$38.13 -
$39.64
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AROW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.13 -
$39.64
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.24
Resistance Level
$39.97
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.09
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Profit Margin
30.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.38
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$39.62
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$39.86
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.03
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 22.6%)
$160.24
(+309%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 22.6%)
$72.20
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 22.6%)
$61.37
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.14
Bull Case
$58.96
(+51%)
Analyst growth 37.2%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$53.60
(+37%)
Market implied 37.2%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$26.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AROW price and gamma walls.
