ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$12.69
-0.12 (-0.94%)
▼
5d:
-7.1%
30d:
-13.08%
90d:
-22.0%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.39
34.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $12.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.10 to $14.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.3) compared to its historical average (5.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.28, while resistance sits at $13.98.
Market Sentiment: ARR scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.38 (+44.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.28, while resistance sits at $13.98.
Market Sentiment: ARR scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.38 (+44.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.10 -
$14.65
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($18.38)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.10 -
$14.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.28
Resistance Level
$13.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.35
Wall Street Target
$18.38
(+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
87.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 5.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.75
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$10.88
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$10.08
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$12.74
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 96.9%)
$59.62
(+370%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 96.9%)
$13.06
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 96.9%)
$11.10
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.06
Bull Case
$10.12
(-20%)
Analyst growth -28.2%, PE expands to 3.5
Base Case
$9.20
(-28%)
Market implied -28.2%, PE stable at 3.2
Bear Case
$8.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.4 to 5.5
Stabilization Target:
$16.04
(+26.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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