ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$12.15
-0.24 (-1.94%)
▼
5d:
-3.57%
30d:
-10.6%
90d:
-27.33%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$12.41 – $13.40
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
4.2x
CHEAP
vs 5.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.56
+28.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$12.02 / $12.85
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 10, 2026 at $12.34 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.98
Based on -35.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $12.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.41 to $13.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (5.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.56 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.56 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.41 -
$13.40
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$12.41 -
$13.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$12.02
Resistance Level
$12.85
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.1% below Wall St target ($15.56)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.24
Wall Street Target
$15.56
(+28.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 5.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.19
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$10.31
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$9.49
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$12.08
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -74.9%)
$55.59
(+358%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: -74.9%)
$11.88
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.6, Growth: -74.9%)
$10.10
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 5.53 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.20
Bull Case
$14.67
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 5.8
Base Case
$12.15
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 5.5
Bear Case
$9.29
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 5.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 5.4
Stabilization Target:
$15.46
(+27.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ARR)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
ARMOUR Residential REIT reported a Q3 net loss of $(327.0) million and raised $228.2 million through equity offerings. The Company's portfolio totaled $21.3 billion, with 94.0% in Agency MBS.
Key Retail Themes:
Financial Results
Capital Raising
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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