ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$15.80
-0.03 (-0.19%)
▼
5d:
-2.05%
30d:
-5.05%
90d:
-7.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $16.35 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.87
20.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $15.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.13 to $16.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.4) is in line with its historical norms (5.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARR scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.38 (+16.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARR scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.38 (+16.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.13 -
$16.60
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($18.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.13 -
$16.60
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.75
Resistance Level
$16.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.39
Wall Street Target
$18.38
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
87.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.61
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$15.42
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$15.24
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$15.85
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 72.1%)
$60.47
(+283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.4, Growth: 72.1%)
$16.14
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 72.1%)
$13.72
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.32
Bull Case
$11.83
(-25%)
Analyst growth -32.1%, PE expands to 4.0
Base Case
$10.75
(-32%)
Market implied -32.1%, PE stable at 3.7
Bear Case
$10.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.4 to 5.6
Stabilization Target:
$16.43
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ARR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARR price and gamma walls.
