ASR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASR - Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A. de C.V. American Depositary Shares
$280.57
-4.55 (-1.60%)
▼
5d:
-9.17%
30d:
+1.53%
90d:
-19.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ASR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$564.59
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$350.57
20.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASR is currently trading at $280.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $283.81 to $307.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $281.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $362.53 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $281.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $362.53 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$283.81 -
$307.08
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($362.53)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$283.81 -
$307.08
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$281.81
Resistance Level
$316.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.16
Wall Street Target
$362.53
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.0%
Profit Margin
26.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 13.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$269.15
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$254.08
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$239.85
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$285.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$904.67
(+217%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 17.6%)
$463.69
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 17.6%)
$394.13
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.55
Bull Case
$429.54
(+51%)
Analyst growth 37.7%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$390.49
(+37%)
Market implied 37.7%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$192.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$339.69
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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