ASR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASR - Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A. de C.V. American Depositary Shares
$275.62
-0.94 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
+2.94%
30d:
-10.8%
90d:
-9.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$605.12
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$375.73
26.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASR is currently trading at $275.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $271.24 to $301.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $282.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $351.20 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $282.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $351.20 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$271.24 -
$301.30
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($351.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$271.24 -
$301.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$259.01
Resistance Level
$282.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.73
Wall Street Target
$351.20
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 13.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$258.53
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$242.50
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$227.47
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$275.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 21.6%)
$958.29
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 21.6%)
$496.07
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 21.6%)
$421.66
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.97
Bull Case
$411.89
(+49%)
Analyst growth 35.4%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$374.45
(+36%)
Market implied 35.4%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$188.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$333.90
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 12:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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