AU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$79.32
-3.01 (-3.66%)
▼
5d:
-0.44%
30d:
-1.94%
90d:
-15.37%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$149.37
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.75
14.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $79.32, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.93 to $82.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 185.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.40, while resistance sits at $82.46. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.12 (+43.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.40, while resistance sits at $82.46. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.12 (+43.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$77.93 -
$82.88
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.9% below Wall St target ($114.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.93 -
$82.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.40
Resistance Level
$82.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.93
Wall Street Target
$114.13
(+43.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
64.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.2%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 10.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.05
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$67.28
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$61.97
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$79.74
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.9%)
$290.99
(+267%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 11.9%)
$111.27
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 11.9%)
$94.58
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.20
Bull Case
$125.86
(+59%)
Analyst growth 39.0%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$114.42
(+44%)
Market implied 39.0%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$55.98
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$102.07
(+28.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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