AU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$79.76
-2.34 (-2.85%)
▼
5d:
-5.1%
30d:
+1.64%
90d:
-26.99%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$164.65
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.23
22.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $79.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.74 to $88.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 185.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.00 (+47.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.00 (+47.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$79.74 -
$88.56
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.9% below Wall St target ($118.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.74 -
$88.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.54
Resistance Level
$85.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.51
Wall Street Target
$118.00
(+47.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
64.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.2%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.78
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$64.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$58.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$80.54
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$331.22
(+315%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 12.7%)
$114.18
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 12.7%)
$97.05
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.99
Bull Case
$136.93
(+67%)
Analyst growth 52.0%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$124.48
(+52%)
Market implied 52.0%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$55.70
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$110.48
(+38.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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