AU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$121.22
6.08 (5.28%)
▲
5d:
+25.88%
30d:
+54.58%
90d:
+31.98%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: AU is 21.0% above its trading range ($100.20). Market expects 6.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: AU is 21.0% above its trading range ($100.20). Market expects 6.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$159.19
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $121.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.19 to $100.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $121.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AU scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $121.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AU scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$76.19 -
$100.20
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
15.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+21.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($113.12)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.4% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.19 -
$100.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.66
Resistance Level
$121.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.18
Wall Street Target
$113.13
(-6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.1%
Profit Margin
32.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 10.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.98
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$137.23
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$146.02
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$121.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$307.22
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 15.4%)
$186.40
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$154.60
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.91
Bull Case
$159.39
(+32%)
Analyst growth 25.8%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$144.90
(+20%)
Market implied 25.8%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$78.30
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 12:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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