AngloGold Ashanti (AU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$95.42
1.22 (1.30%)
▲
5d:
-3.65%
30d:
-11.51%
90d:
+13.53%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.17
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.80
8.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $95.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.32 to $113.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.85, while resistance sits at $104.97.
Market Sentiment: AU scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.50 (+24.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.85, while resistance sits at $104.97.
Market Sentiment: AU scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.50 (+24.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$97.32 -
$113.55
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($117.50)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 25% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.32 -
$113.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.85
Resistance Level
$104.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.43
Wall Street Target
$117.50
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.1%
Profit Margin
32.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.85
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$89.55
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$87.31
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$94.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.0%)
$326.39
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 17.0%)
$150.84
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 17.0%)
$128.21
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.40
Bull Case
$139.54
(+48%)
Analyst growth 35.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$126.85
(+35%)
Market implied 35.0%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$63.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$101.92
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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