Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUB - Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
$38.82
0.35 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
+0.1%
30d:
-4.38%
90d:
-8.01%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AUB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AUB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.52
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUB is currently trading at $38.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.80 to $40.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 834.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AUB scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.62 (+22.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AUB scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.62 (+22.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.80 -
$40.66
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($47.62)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.80 -
$40.66
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.22
Resistance Level
$39.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.62
Wall Street Target
$47.63
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
834.8%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.66
(0%)
2-Year Target
$38.51
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$38.36
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$38.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.3%)
$101.63
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 7.3%)
$47.91
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 7.3%)
$40.72
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.48
Bull Case
$49.09
(+26%)
Analyst growth 16.0%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$44.62
(+15%)
Market implied 16.0%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$26.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$39.16
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Nancy H Agee
BUY
650 shares
2026-04-20
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