Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$39.49
-0.21 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
+0.71%
30d:
+5.45%
90d:
-7.91%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (50%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$37.92 – $39.75
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.8x
FAIR
vs 9.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$45.63
+14.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$38.90 / $41.51
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AUB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.89
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUB is currently trading at $39.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.92 to $39.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.62 (+14.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.62 (+14.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.92 -
$39.75
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$37.92 -
$39.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$38.90
Resistance Level
$41.51
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.76
Wall Street Target
$45.63
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.4%
Profit Margin
34.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.78
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$39.86
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$39.94
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.1%)
$102.01
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 8.1%)
$50.14
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 8.1%)
$42.62
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.67
Bull Case
$48.59
(+22%)
Analyst growth 10.8%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$44.17
(+11%)
Market implied 10.8%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$27.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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