Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$15.83
-0.12 (-0.75%)
▼
5d:
-3.71%
30d:
-2.82%
90d:
+2.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $15.95 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AUPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AUPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.45
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $15.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.07 to $16.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AUPH scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.86 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AUPH scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.86 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.07 -
$16.67
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AUPH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.07 -
$16.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.02
(6.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.74
Resistance Level
$16.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.84
Wall Street Target
$17.86
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.5%
Profit Margin
100.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.47
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$15.11
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$14.76
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$15.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.0%)
$31.40
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 13.0%)
$22.84
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 13.0%)
$19.41
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.28
Bull Case
$8.77
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$7.97
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$10.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$16.96
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
