Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$16.32
+0.11 (+0.68%)
▲
5d:
+0.68%
30d:
-1.75%
90d:
+5.49%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
Protect AUPH Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (55%)
Quality Score
54/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$16.15 – $17.03
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.0x
CHEAP
vs 15.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$18.29
+12.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.75 / $17.40
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AUPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 3, 2026 at $16.59 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.82
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.76
17.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $16.32, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.15 to $17.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.75, while resistance sits at $17.40.
Market Sentiment: AUPH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.29 (+12.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.75, while resistance sits at $17.40.
Market Sentiment: AUPH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.29 (+12.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.15 -
$17.03
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$16.15 -
$17.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$15.75
Resistance Level
$17.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($18.29)
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.97
Wall Street Target
$18.29
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
97.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 15.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.56
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$14.94
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$14.34
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$16.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.6%)
$39.40
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 19.6%)
$27.72
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 19.6%)
$23.56
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.28
Bull Case
$9.12
(-44%)
Analyst growth -49.1%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$8.29
(-49%)
Market implied -49.1%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$11.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$18.33
(+13.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AUPH)
Bullish
9 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
8 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits is filled with bullish sentiment towards $AUPH, with traders expressing optimism and excitement about potential price movements.
Key Retail Themes:
Price optimism
Anticipation of catalysts
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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