AUPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$17.88
0.35 (2.00%)
▲
5d:
+11.75%
30d:
+15.73%
90d:
+22.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AUPH is 8.5% above its trading range ($16.48). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AUPH is 8.5% above its trading range ($16.48). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.93
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.58
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $17.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.21 to $16.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AUPH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AUPH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$15.21 -
$16.48
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
AUPH is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.21 -
$16.48
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.47
Resistance Level
$18.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.99
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.3%
Profit Margin
100.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 16.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.70
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$17.52
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$17.35
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$17.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.5%)
$38.46
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 16.5%)
$28.24
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 16.5%)
$24.00
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$9.90
(-45%)
Analyst growth -48.2%, PE expands to 8.9
Base Case
$9.00
(-50%)
Market implied -48.2%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$11.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$18.45
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Tang
BUY
516439 shares
2026-02-27
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
