AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$4.73
-0.02 (-0.42%)
▼
5d:
-3.47%
30d:
-5.96%
90d:
-1.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
19d
Get Alerted When AVAL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVAL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVAL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.55
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.93
20.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $4.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.77 to $5.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.77 -
$5.12
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.10)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.77 -
$5.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.68
Resistance Level
$5.03
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.44
Wall Street Target
$5.10
(+7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.50
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.29
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$4.08
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$4.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.9%)
$21.77
(+360%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 19.9%)
$8.16
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 19.9%)
$6.94
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$8.74
(+85%)
Analyst growth 67.2%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$7.94
(+68%)
Market implied 67.2%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$3.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$5.46
(+15.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$62 | 67 BUY |
|
PNC
PNC Financial Services G… |
BUY
23 analysts |
$266 | 68 BUY |
|
NU
Nu Holdings Ltd |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$19 | 48 HOLD |
|
EWBC
East West Bancorp Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$148 | 59 HOLD |
|
TFC
Truist Financial Corp |
HOLD
22 analysts |
$54 | 71 BUY |
