AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$5.19
-0.09 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
+7.6%
30d:
+2.5%
90d:
+17.87%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.85
11.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $5.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.89 to $5.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $4.60. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $4.60. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.89 -
$5.12
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.9% above Wall St target ($4.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with 19.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.89 -
$5.12
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.63
Resistance Level
$5.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.49
Wall Street Target
$4.60
(-12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.9%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.43
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$5.59
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$5.75
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 32.6%)
$26.89
(+409%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 32.6%)
$12.31
(+133%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 32.6%)
$10.46
(+98%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.45
Bull Case
$7.01
(+33%)
Analyst growth 23.7%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$6.37
(+21%)
Market implied 23.7%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$3.50
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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