AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$5.35
-0.04 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
+0.38%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
-0.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.13
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.67
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $5.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.23 to $5.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAL scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAL scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.23 -
$5.45
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.35)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.23 -
$5.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.12
Resistance Level
$5.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.06
Wall Street Target
$5.35
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.20
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$5.05
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$4.91
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$5.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.8%)
$20.25
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 14.8%)
$8.09
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 14.8%)
$6.88
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$7.72
(+44%)
Analyst growth 30.2%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$7.02
(+31%)
Market implied 30.2%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$3.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$5.84
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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