AVBC
Avidia Bancorp, Inc.
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Avidia Bancorp (AVBC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$22.66
-0.17 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-1.69%
30d:
+3.23%
90d:
+2.77%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (71%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$21.95 – $23.08
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.9x
FAIR
vs 14.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$27.25
+19.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$22.35 / $24.00
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AVBC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.67
Based on -14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVBC is currently trading at $22.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.95 to $23.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.25 (+19.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.25 (+19.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.95 -
$23.08
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$21.95 -
$23.08
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$22.35
Resistance Level
$24.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (52/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.87
Wall Street Target
$27.25
(+19.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.1%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.08
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$23.34
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$23.59
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -32.5%)
$30.19
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: -32.5%)
$22.61
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: -32.5%)
$19.22
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.47
Bull Case
$26.21
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$23.83
(+4%)
Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$15.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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