AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
PLASTICS PRODUCTS, NEC
Armstrong World Industries (AWI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$176.62
-0.39 (-0.22%)
▼
5d:
+0.38%
30d:
+7.26%
90d:
-2.79%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$161.79 – $173.03
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.6x
FAIR
vs 18.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$200.18
+13.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$158.00 / $180.46
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AWI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$273.02
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$169.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWI is currently trading at $176.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $161.79 to $173.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $180.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AWI scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $200.18 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $180.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AWI scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $200.18 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$161.79 -
$173.03
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$161.79 -
$173.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$158.00
Resistance Level
$180.46
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($200.18)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.62
Wall Street Target
$200.18
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 18.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.91
(0%)
2-Year Target
$175.21
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$174.51
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$176.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.9%)
$278.54
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 13.9%)
$261.17
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 13.9%)
$222.00
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.50
Bull Case
$246.23
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.5%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$223.85
(+27%)
Market implied 26.5%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$120.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$178.31
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AWI)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Armstrong World Industries reported Q3 revenue growth above estimates, but missed on EPS and lowered 2026 guidance due to higher costs and product mix changes.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings miss
higher costs
lowered guidance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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