Axos Financial (AX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AX - Axos Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$88.93
1.32 (1.51%)
▲
5d:
+0.46%
30d:
-7.32%
90d:
-11.71%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.95
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.86
3.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AX is currently trading at $88.93, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.70 to $96.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.03, while resistance sits at $92.11.
Market Sentiment: AX scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.71 (+32.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.03, while resistance sits at $92.11.
Market Sentiment: AX scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.71 (+32.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$88.70 -
$96.59
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($117.71)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 22% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$88.70 -
$96.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.03
Resistance Level
$92.11
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.25
Wall Street Target
$117.71
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Profit Margin
35.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.60
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$86.28
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$84.99
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$89.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.5%)
$302.50
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$137.20
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 15.5%)
$116.62
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.59
Bull Case
$107.83
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.9%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$98.03
(+10%)
Market implied 11.9%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$59.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$93.23
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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