AX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AX - Axos Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$97.77
0.61 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
-0.72%
30d:
+9.51%
90d:
+4.4%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.42
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AX is currently trading at $97.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.01 to $97.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.86 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.86 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$89.01 -
$97.71
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($110.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$89.01 -
$97.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.03
Resistance Level
$100.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.17
Wall Street Target
$110.86
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
36.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.73
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$101.72
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$103.75
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$97.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.5%)
$322.96
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 15.5%)
$150.84
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 15.5%)
$128.21
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.21
Bull Case
$125.12
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.1%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$113.75
(+16%)
Market implied 17.1%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$66.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 6:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derrick Walsh
SELL
4846 shares
2026-02-06
James John Court
SELL
11163 shares
2026-02-06
Gregory Garrabrants
SELL
43294 shares
2026-02-04
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