AX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AX - Axos Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$96.66
0.70 (0.73%)
â˛
5d:
-5.38%
30d:
+1.51%
90d:
+12.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.95
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AX is currently trading at $96.66, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.63 to $101.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AX scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.14 (+23.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AX scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.14 (+23.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$96.63 -
$101.77
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($119.14)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.63 -
$101.77
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.40
Resistance Level
$102.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.06
Wall Street Target
$119.14
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Profit Margin
35.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.92
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$99.19
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$100.48
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$96.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.5%)
$297.61
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 15.5%)
$149.12
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 15.5%)
$126.75
(+31%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.46
Bull Case
$119.93
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.6%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$109.02
(+13%)
Market implied 13.6%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$65.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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