AX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AX - Axos Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$93.71
2.30 (2.52%)
▲
5d:
+4.79%
30d:
+8.87%
90d:
+10.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$145.13
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AX is currently trading at $93.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.66 to $89.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.17 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.17 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$85.66 -
$89.87
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($110.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.66 -
$89.87
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.86
Resistance Level
$92.05
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.45
Wall Street Target
$110.17
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
36.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.13
(0%)
2-Year Target
$90.85
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$90.58
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$91.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.3%)
$322.92
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 15.3%)
$140.14
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 15.3%)
$119.12
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.21
Bull Case
$114.69
(+26%)
Analyst growth 17.8%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$104.26
(+14%)
Market implied 17.8%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$60.19
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$91.86
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 12:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derrick Walsh
SELL
4846 shares
2026-02-06
James John Court
SELL
11163 shares
2026-02-06
Gregory Garrabrants
SELL
43294 shares
2026-02-04
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