Is AXP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AXP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of AXP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AXP to be between $327.77 and $342.98. The current price is $324.69.

What is the analyst price target for AXP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AXP is $375.96. This implies a potential upside of 15.8% from current levels.

American Express (AXP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AXP - American Express Company

FINANCE SERVICES

$324.69

3.98 (1.24%) ▲

5d: -1.56%

30d: -5.64%

90d: +1.95%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 23, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $340.91 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 8.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AXP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 14.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$531.92

Based on 9.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$330.28

1.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AXP is currently trading at $324.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $327.77 to $342.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AXP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $318.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $375.96 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $327.77 - $342.98

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($375.96)
WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $327.77 - $342.98

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $318.35

Resistance Level $336.56

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.11

Wall Street Target $375.96 (+15.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 11.0%

Profit Margin 16.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.1 vs 17.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $317.55 (-2%)

2-Year Target $310.56 (-4%)

3-Year Target $303.73 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→17) $324.25 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.0%) $601.95 (+85%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 14.0%) $480.83 (+48%)

Bear: (PE: 13.7, Growth: 14.0%) $408.71 (+26%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 19.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.42

Bull Case $432.98 (+33%)

Analyst growth 22.7%, PE expands to 21.5

Base Case $393.61 (+21%)

Market implied 22.7%, PE stable at 19.5

Bear Case $218.08 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 17.2

Stabilization Target: $346.62 (+6.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +6.8%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 4:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Rick Larsen SELL 2026-04-07

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

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