Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXTA - Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
$32.20
0.35 (1.10%)
▲
5d:
-2.1%
30d:
-10.03%
90d:
-8.03%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AXTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AXTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.93
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXTA is currently trading at $32.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.39 to $35.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $31.20, while resistance sits at $33.59.
Market Sentiment: AXTA scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.33 (+23.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $31.20, while resistance sits at $33.59.
Market Sentiment: AXTA scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.33 (+23.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$32.39 -
$35.83
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($39.33)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 24% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.39 -
$35.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.20
Resistance Level
$33.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.11
Wall Street Target
$39.33
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.0%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.56
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$31.28
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$31.00
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$31.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.2%)
$74.15
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 8.2%)
$40.37
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 8.2%)
$34.32
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.60
Bull Case
$63.40
(+99%)
Analyst growth 79.2%, PE expands to 22.1
Base Case
$57.63
(+81%)
Market implied 79.2%, PE stable at 20.1
Bear Case
$21.87
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$32.69
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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