AXTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXTI - AXT Inc
$77.91
-14.53 (-15.72%)
▼
5d:
-29.65%
30d:
-35.62%
90d:
+20.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AXTI is down 29.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AXTI is down 29.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXTI is currently trading at $77.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.63 to $119.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 103.6) compared to its historical average (129.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $76.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 15.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.50 (+23.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $76.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 15.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.50 (+23.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$87.63 -
$119.76
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AXTI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-15.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($96.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -29.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.63 -
$119.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.00
Resistance Level
$116.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
103.60
Wall Street Target
$96.50
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.1%
Profit Margin
-14.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
103.6 vs 129.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.38
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$67.24
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$62.47
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 104→129)
$77.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 103.6, Growth: 147.4%)
$262.95
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 147.4%)
$55.28
(-29%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 147.4%)
$46.99
(-40%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 103.6 to 129.2
Stabilization Target:
$97.16
(+24.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Morris S Young
SELL
37905 shares
2026-03-13
Jesse Chen
SELL
8083 shares
2026-03-13
Jesse Chen
SELL
6003 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AXTI Option Strategies
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