AXT (AXTI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$45.32
-1.65 (-3.51%)
▼
5d:
+23.42%
30d:
-26.42%
90d:
-44.49%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (86%)
Quality Score
59/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$44.59 – $69.51
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.4x
CHEAP
vs 81.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$91.50
+94.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$36.56 / $63.55
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AXTI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.03
41.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXTI is currently trading at $45.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.59 to $69.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (81.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 39.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.56, while resistance sits at $63.55. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AXTI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.50 (+94.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.56, while resistance sits at $63.55. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AXTI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.50 (+94.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$44.59 -
$69.51
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$44.59 -
$69.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$36.56
Resistance Level
$63.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding AXTI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 94.8% below Wall St target ($91.50)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.43
Wall Street Target
$91.50
(+94.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
162.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.1%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-39.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 81.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-39.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.27
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$38.05
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$34.24
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→82)
$151.77
(+223%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 116.3%)
$170.81
(+264%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 116.3%)
$158.52
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 116.3%)
$134.75
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 18.12 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.59
Bull Case
$56.72
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$46.97
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$35.93
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 81.7
Stabilization Target:
$208.20
(+343.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+343.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AXTI)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
AXT, Inc. (AXTI) is experiencing surging demand for its indium phosphide (InP) substrates due to hyperscalers' expansion of AI data centers and deployment of GPU-dense computing systems. This demand is expected to sustain AXT's revenue growth.
Key Retail Themes:
Demand for AXT's InP substrates due to AI data center expansion
Surging revenues and expanding capacity
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 11:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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