BFST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFST - Business First Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$30.37
0.20 (0.66%)
▲
5d:
-1.68%
30d:
+5.09%
90d:
+6.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.16
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFST is currently trading at $30.37, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.73 to $30.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$28.73 -
$30.55
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.73 -
$30.55
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.50
Resistance Level
$31.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.33
Wall Street Target
$32.60
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.13
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$31.91
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$32.71
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$90.12
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 8.3%)
$38.60
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$32.81
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.82
Bull Case
$38.32
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.5%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$34.83
(+15%)
Market implied 15.5%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$20.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark P Folse
SELL
4854 shares
2026-02-10
Mark P Folse
SELL
5146 shares
2026-02-09
Donald Chad Carter
SELL
3778 shares
2026-01-29
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