Business First Bancshares (BFST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFST - Business First Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$31.42
-0.03 (-0.10%)
▼
5d:
-0.22%
30d:
-2.36%
90d:
+8.05%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BFST is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BFST is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.68
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFST is currently trading at $31.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.11 to $31.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.90 (+11.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.90 (+11.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$31.11 -
$31.95
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($34.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.11 -
$31.95
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.54
Resistance Level
$31.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.54
Wall Street Target
$34.90
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.17
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$32.95
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$33.74
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.6%)
$87.52
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 9.6%)
$41.41
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$35.20
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.84
Bull Case
$40.10
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$36.46
(+16%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$21.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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