Business First Bancshares (BFST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$32.60
-0.13 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
-1.15%
30d:
+5.84%
90d:
+0.99%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (52%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$30.87 – $32.37
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.9x
FAIR
vs 9.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$37.05
+13.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$30.52 / $33.69
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BFST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.71
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFST is currently trading at $32.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.87 to $32.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.52, while resistance sits at $33.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.05 (+13.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.52, while resistance sits at $33.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.05 (+13.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.87 -
$32.37
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$30.87 -
$32.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$30.52
Resistance Level
$33.69
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.05)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.4% growth with 17.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.91
Wall Street Target
$37.05
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Profit Margin
27.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.84
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$34.99
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$36.18
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.87
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.0%)
$84.91
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 9.0%)
$42.35
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 9.0%)
$36.00
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$42.71
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.4%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$38.83
(+19%)
Market implied 18.4%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$22.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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