BFST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFST - Business First Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$29.35
0.35 (1.21%)
▲
5d:
+2.02%
30d:
+4.78%
90d:
+9.47%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.11
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFST is currently trading at $29.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.69 to $28.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $29.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.40 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $29.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.40 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.69 -
$28.94
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($32.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.69 -
$28.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.35
Resistance Level
$29.51
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.92
Wall Street Target
$32.40
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.35
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$29.70
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$30.06
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.8%)
$91.13
(+214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 8.8%)
$37.31
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 8.8%)
$31.71
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.82
Bull Case
$36.49
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.3%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$33.18
(+14%)
Market implied 15.3%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$19.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark P Folse
SELL
4854 shares
2026-02-10
Mark P Folse
SELL
5146 shares
2026-02-09
Donald Chad Carter
SELL
3778 shares
2026-01-29
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