BLD
TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
CONSTRUCTION - SPECIAL TRADE CONTRACTORS
TopBuild (BLD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$354.53
-5.23 (-1.45%)
▼
5d:
-12.98%
30d:
-15.08%
90d:
+5.71%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (45%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.0x
CHEAP
vs 20.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$471.33
+32.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
UNKNOWN Vol
UNKNOWN volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$330.51 / $431.58
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BLD is down 13.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$662.95
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$411.64
13.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $354.53, which is considered fair based on recent price action. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (20.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $330.51, while resistance sits at $431.58.
Market Sentiment: BLD scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $471.33 (+32.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $330.51, while resistance sits at $431.58.
Market Sentiment: BLD scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $471.33 (+32.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
UNKNOWN
Confidence Score
45.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
Support Level
$330.51
Resistance Level
$431.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 30, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.9% below Wall St target ($471.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.01
Wall Street Target
$471.33
(+32.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 20.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$333.61
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$313.93
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$295.41
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$354.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$685.96
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 14.7%)
$535.59
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 14.7%)
$455.25
(+28%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 20.4
Stabilization Target:
$425.29
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BLD)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 1, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
QXO completes acquisition of TopBuild, expanding product offerings and capabilities, expected to be substantially accretive to earnings.
Key Retail Themes:
M&A activity
Expansion into new markets
Earnings growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 9:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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