Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$53.51
-0.41 (-0.76%)
▼
5d:
+5.92%
30d:
-12.09%
90d:
-24.15%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLDR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLDR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.36
18.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $53.51, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.31 to $59.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $49.66, while resistance sits at $55.83.
Market Sentiment: BLDR scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.36 (+33.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $49.66, while resistance sits at $55.83.
Market Sentiment: BLDR scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.36 (+33.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$53.31 -
$59.06
Company Quality Score
73/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (84/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.4% below Wall St target ($71.36)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 84/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.31 -
$59.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.67
Resistance Level
$55.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.06
Wall Street Target
$71.36
(+33.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.9%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.40
(0%)
2-Year Target
$53.30
(0%)
3-Year Target
$53.19
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$53.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 25.7%)
$150.26
(+181%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 25.7%)
$106.36
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 25.7%)
$90.40
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 13.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.84
Bull Case
$64.61
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$53.51
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$40.94
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$54.05
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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