Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$55.63
-0.62 (-1.10%)
▼
5d:
-4.1%
30d:
-13.32%
90d:
-29.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.89
25.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $55.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.20 to $63.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.90 (+43.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.90 (+43.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$57.20 -
$63.85
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BLDR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.6% below Wall St target ($79.90)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.20 -
$63.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.75
Resistance Level
$61.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.75
Wall Street Target
$79.90
(+43.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.9%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 14.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.63
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$51.70
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$49.84
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$55.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 38.3%)
$227.44
(+309%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 38.3%)
$147.24
(+165%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 38.3%)
$125.16
(+125%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.99
Bull Case
$67.17
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$55.63
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$42.56
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$61.94
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 7:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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