Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$57.35
0.34 (0.60%)
▲
5d:
-1.6%
30d:
-8.66%
90d:
-32.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.92
24.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $57.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.80 to $65.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $54.75, while resistance sits at $61.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.62 (+40.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $54.75, while resistance sits at $61.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.62 (+40.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$57.80 -
$65.81
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BLDR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.6% below Wall St target ($80.62)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.80 -
$65.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.75
Resistance Level
$61.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.97
Wall Street Target
$80.62
(+40.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.9%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.63
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$53.96
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$52.34
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$57.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 39.6%)
$245.54
(+328%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 39.6%)
$156.13
(+172%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 39.6%)
$132.71
(+131%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.11
Bull Case
$69.25
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$57.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$43.87
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$62.78
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BLDR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BLDR price and gamma walls.
