Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$28.49
-0.16 (-0.56%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.49%
30d:
+8.18%
90d:
-0.11%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (64%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$26.62 â $28.74
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.3x
FAIR
vs 11.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$32.20
+13.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$27.91 / $30.04
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BMRC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.70
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BMRC is currently trading at $28.49, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.62 to $28.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BMRC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $27.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.20 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BMRC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $27.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.20 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$26.62 -
$28.74
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$26.62 -
$28.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$27.91
Resistance Level
$30.04
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($32.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.31
Wall Street Target
$32.20
(+13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.9%
Profit Margin
-18.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.63
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$28.78
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$28.92
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.37
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$61.68
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 7.2%)
$35.14
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 7.2%)
$29.87
(+5%)
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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