BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$3.12
-0.09 (-2.80%)
▼
5d:
-9.83%
30d:
-15.68%
90d:
-37.6%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
32/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$3.41 – $3.79
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
5.1x
CHEAP
vs 7.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$5.75
+84.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$3.10 / $3.77
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BRSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.44
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.62
32.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BRSP is currently trading at $3.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.41 to $3.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9035.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BRSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BRSP scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.75 (+84.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BRSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BRSP scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.75 (+84.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.41 -
$3.79
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$3.41 -
$3.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$3.10
Resistance Level
$3.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 84.3% below Wall St target ($5.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.09
Wall Street Target
$5.75
(+84.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9035.8%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.81
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.53
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.27
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→8)
$3.35
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$19.17
(+515%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 16.4%)
$4.92
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 16.4%)
$4.18
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.13
Bull Case
$7.06
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$6.42
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.7
Bear Case
$2.18
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$4.59
(+47.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+47.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BRSP)
Neutral
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Trader on StockTwits expresses optimism over $BRSP's potential return above $4.25, citing oversold and undervalued conditions.
Key Retail Themes:
Undervalued condition
Oversold condition
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BRSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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