BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BRSP - BrightSpire Capital, Inc.
$3.81
-0.02 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
-6.85%
30d:
-18.76%
90d:
-29.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BRSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BRSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.90
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.91
22.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BRSP is currently trading at $3.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.06 to $4.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BRSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BRSP scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.34 (+66.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BRSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BRSP scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.34 (+66.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.06 -
$4.72
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.5% below Wall St target ($6.34)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.06 -
$4.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.73
Resistance Level
$4.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.84
Wall Street Target
$6.34
(+66.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.8%
Profit Margin
-8.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 7.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.47
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$3.16
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$2.87
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$3.84
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.5%)
$20.02
(+425%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$5.73
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 14.5%)
$4.87
(+28%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$5.09
(+33.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BRSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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