BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BRSP - BrightSpire Capital, Inc.
$3.63
-0.02 (-0.68%)
▼
5d:
-1.76%
30d:
-11.37%
90d:
-30.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BRSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BRSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.86
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.88
25.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BRSP is currently trading at $3.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.69 to $4.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BRSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.97 (+63.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BRSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.97 (+63.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.69 -
$4.17
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.5% below Wall St target ($5.97)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.69 -
$4.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.56
Resistance Level
$3.89
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.71
Wall Street Target
$5.97
(+63.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.8%
Profit Margin
-8.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.31
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$3.01
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$2.73
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$3.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$20.01
(+448%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 16.4%)
$5.76
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$4.89
(+34%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$4.85
(+33.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BRSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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