BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BRSP - BrightSpire Capital, Inc.
$4.45
-0.04 (-0.89%)
▼
5d:
-4.51%
30d:
-10.28%
90d:
-20.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BRSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BRSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.00
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.97
10.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BRSP is currently trading at $4.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.66 to $5.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BRSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BRSP scores 14/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.34 (+42.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BRSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BRSP scores 14/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.34 (+42.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.66 -
$5.01
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (14/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.6% below Wall St target ($6.34)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.66 -
$5.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.43
Resistance Level
$4.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.82
Wall Street Target
$6.34
(+42.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.8%
Profit Margin
-8.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 7.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.25
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.05
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$3.86
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$4.48
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.5%)
$19.79
(+345%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$6.69
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$5.68
(+28%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.16
(+15.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BRSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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