BANCO SANTANDER (BRASIL) SA (BSBR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$5.02
+0.12 (+2.45%)
â˛
5d:
+6.13%
30d:
-10.2%
90d:
-13.0%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (83%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$4.71 â $5.74
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
5.9x
FAIR
vs 6.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$6.77
+34.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$4.38 / $5.11
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BSBR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.72
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.65
24.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSBR is currently trading at $5.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.71 to $5.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSBR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BSBR scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.77 (+34.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSBR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BSBR scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.77 (+34.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.71 -
$5.74
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$4.71 -
$5.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$4.38
Resistance Level
$5.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.8% below Wall St target ($6.77)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.93
Wall Street Target
$6.77
(+34.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.4%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.86
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$4.70
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$4.55
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â7)
$4.99
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.4%)
$33.94
(+576%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 26.4%)
$10.13
(+102%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 26.4%)
$8.61
(+72%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case
$10.78
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$9.80
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$3.33
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$5.50
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL
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