First Busey (BUSE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BUSE - First Busey Corporation Class A Common Stock
$30.33
-0.30 (-0.98%)
▼
5d:
+3.06%
30d:
+1.1%
90d:
+1.95%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BUSE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BUSE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.24
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BUSE is currently trading at $30.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.18 to $30.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BUSE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $30.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BUSE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BUSE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $30.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BUSE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.18 -
$30.14
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.18 -
$30.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.55
Resistance Level
$30.66
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.07
Wall Street Target
$32.43
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Profit Margin
29.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.21
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$32.11
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$33.05
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.45
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.8%)
$57.42
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 1.8%)
$32.00
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 1.8%)
$27.20
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.42
Bull Case
$38.15
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$34.68
(+14%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$20.83
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 3:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BUSE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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