BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$10.98
-0.12 (-1.04%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.55%
30d:
+2.28%
90d:
-24.24%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (72%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$10.52 â $11.24
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.8x
CHEAP
vs 10.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.21
+37.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$10.25 / $11.92
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BXMT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.19
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $10.98, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.52 to $11.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.25, while resistance sits at $11.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.21 (+37.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.25, while resistance sits at $11.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.21 (+37.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.52 -
$11.24
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.52 -
$11.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$10.25
Resistance Level
$11.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.1% below Wall St target ($15.21)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.75
Wall Street Target
$15.21
(+37.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-73.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
-256.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.63
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.19
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$9.76
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â10)
$11.15
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.0%)
$29.97
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$13.21
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 6.0%)
$11.23
(+1%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$12.68
(+14.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BXMT)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Blackstone Mortgage Trust reported a surprising Q3 net loss of $327M, leading to a stock price drop. Higher interest rates and challenges in the office market contributed to the loss, with $800M in loans being impaired.
Key Retail Themes:
Higher interest rates and office market challenges
Impaired loans and portfolio rebalancing
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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