BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$16.82
-0.23 (-1.35%)
▼
5d:
-3.67%
30d:
-7.73%
90d:
-14.18%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BXMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BXMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.62
34.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $16.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.13 to $18.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.88 (+24.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.88 (+24.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.13 -
$18.23
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($20.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.13 -
$18.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.72
Resistance Level
$17.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.65
Wall Street Target
$20.88
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 10.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.59
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$14.45
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$13.40
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$16.88
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.7%)
$101.15
(+501%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 33.7%)
$40.19
(+139%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 33.7%)
$34.16
(+103%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$37.51
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$34.10
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$11.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$21.19
(+26.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fernando Austin Pena
SELL
1666 shares
2026-03-31
Marcin Urbaszek
SELL
452 shares
2026-03-17
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