BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$10.59
0.39 (3.77%)
▲
5d:
-1.81%
30d:
-15.79%
90d:
-36.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BXMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BXMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.61
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.90
33.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $10.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.63 to $12.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.12, while resistance sits at $11.31. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.86 (+65.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.12, while resistance sits at $11.31. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.86 (+65.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.63 -
$12.84
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 65.3% below Wall St target ($16.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.63 -
$12.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.12
Resistance Level
$11.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.32
Wall Street Target
$16.86
(+65.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-73.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.26
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.44
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$10.26
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.8%)
$50.05
(+391%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 21.8%)
$18.45
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 21.8%)
$15.68
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (57x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 57.14 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.18
Bull Case
$12.32
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 60.0
Base Case
$10.20
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 57.1
Bear Case
$7.80
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 51.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$14.07
(+38.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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