BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$11.30
-0.15 (-1.31%)
▼
5d:
-8.8%
30d:
-18.18%
90d:
-34.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BXMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BXMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.00
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.52
27.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $11.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.52 to $14.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.86 (+66.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.86 (+66.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.52 -
$14.06
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.9% below Wall St target ($18.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.52 -
$14.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.12
Resistance Level
$13.58
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.60
Wall Street Target
$18.86
(+66.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-73.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.23
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.25
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$8.38
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$11.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.8%)
$48.35
(+328%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 16.8%)
$18.02
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 16.8%)
$15.32
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (57x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 57.14 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.20
Bull Case
$13.64
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 60.0
Base Case
$11.30
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 57.1
Bear Case
$8.64
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 51.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$15.31
(+35.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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