BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$13.35
-0.13 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
-5.72%
30d:
-6.51%
90d:
-26.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BXMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BXMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.58
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.37
27.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $13.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.79 to $14.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.86 (+41.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.86 (+41.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.79 -
$14.40
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.3% below Wall St target ($18.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.79 -
$14.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.34
Resistance Level
$14.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.62
Wall Street Target
$18.86
(+41.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-73.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.54
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$11.77
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$11.05
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$13.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 22.2%)
$57.07
(+328%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 22.2%)
$24.38
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 22.2%)
$20.72
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (57x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 57.14 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.23
Bull Case
$16.12
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 60.0
Base Case
$13.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 57.1
Bear Case
$10.21
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 51.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$16.12
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fernando Austin Pena
SELL
1666 shares
2026-03-31
Marcin Urbaszek
SELL
452 shares
2026-03-17
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