BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$14.27
-0.08 (-0.56%)
▼
5d:
-1.45%
30d:
-13.46%
90d:
-20.63%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BXMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BXMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.69
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.67
27.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $14.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.17 to $16.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT scores 95/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.86 (+32.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT scores 95/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.86 (+32.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$14.17 -
$16.67
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (95/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.1% below Wall St target ($18.86)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.17 -
$16.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.91
Resistance Level
$14.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.21
Wall Street Target
$18.86
(+32.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-73.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 10.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.66
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$13.07
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$12.51
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$14.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 26.0%)
$62.25
(+336%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 26.0%)
$28.56
(+100%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 26.0%)
$24.28
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (57x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 57.14 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.25
Bull Case
$17.23
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 60.0
Base Case
$14.27
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 57.1
Bear Case
$10.92
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 51.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$16.27
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fernando Austin Pena
SELL
1666 shares
2026-03-31
Marcin Urbaszek
SELL
452 shares
2026-03-17
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