CGAU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGAU - Centerra Gold Inc.
$16.19
-0.41 (-2.44%)
▼
5d:
-4.51%
30d:
-2.56%
90d:
-1.13%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGAU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGAU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.14
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.23
0.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGAU is currently trading at $16.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.86 to $17.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 190.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.69, while resistance sits at $18.42.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.69, while resistance sits at $18.42.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.86 -
$17.35
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.86 -
$17.35
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.69
Resistance Level
$18.42
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.07
Wall Street Target
$17.75
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
61.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
190.3%
Profit Margin
40.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 9.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.89
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$15.23
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$14.59
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$16.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.4%)
$58.62
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 9.4%)
$21.71
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$18.46
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$12.09
(-27%)
Analyst growth -33.7%, PE expands to 5.9
Base Case
$10.99
(-34%)
Market implied -33.7%, PE stable at 5.4
Bear Case
$11.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$18.92
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGAU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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