Centerra Gold (CGAU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGAU - Centerra Gold Inc.
$20.25
-0.25 (-1.22%)
▼
5d:
-8.16%
30d:
-11.11%
90d:
+22.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGAU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGAU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.14
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.68
14.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGAU is currently trading at $20.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.29 to $22.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGAU scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGAU scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.29 -
$22.67
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 21.0% above Wall St target ($16.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.29 -
$22.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.74
Resistance Level
$22.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.93
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(-21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
36.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.51
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$20.78
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$21.05
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.36
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 31.8%)
$92.72
(+358%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 31.8%)
$46.34
(+129%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 31.8%)
$39.39
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$14.60
(-28%)
Analyst growth -35.2%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$13.28
(-34%)
Market implied -35.2%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$13.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGAU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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