Centerra Gold (CGAU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$20.29
-0.99 (-4.65%)
▼
5d:
-4.65%
30d:
-3.7%
90d:
-5.67%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (51%)
Quality Score
58/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$20.60 – $22.23
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.1x
FAIR
vs 9.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$16.00
-21.1% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$19.25 / $23.06
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGAU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.38
13.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGAU is currently trading at $20.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.60 to $22.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.25, while resistance sits at $23.06. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: CGAU scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.25, while resistance sits at $23.06. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: CGAU scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$20.60 -
$22.23
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$20.60 -
$22.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$19.25
Resistance Level
$23.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- BEARISH: Trading 21.1% above Wall St target ($16.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 26.6% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.07
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(-21.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.6%
Profit Margin
23.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.61
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$20.94
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$21.28
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 30.1%)
$88.14
(+334%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 30.1%)
$44.71
(+120%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 30.1%)
$38.00
(+87%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.17
Bull Case
$21.73
(+7%)
Analyst growth -7.2%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$19.75
(-3%)
Market implied -7.2%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$14.47
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CGAU)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Azimut Exploration signed an option agreement with Centerra Gold for the Corvet and Kaanaayaa properties in Quebec, which cover a combined surface area of 556.3 km² and have significant gold-copper potential. Centerra has the right to earn up to a 70% interest in the Properties by delivering a PEA with a minimum mineral resource estimate of 1 Moz AuEq, funding $16M in exploration expenditures, and making $850,000 in cash payments.
Key Retail Themes:
partnerships between Azimut and Centerra for exploration
potential discoveries on the Corvet and Kaanaayaa Properties
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 13, 2026 4:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGAU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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