Centerra Gold (CGAU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGAU - Centerra Gold Inc.
$22.63
0.03 (0.13%)
â˛
5d:
-1.78%
30d:
+4.09%
90d:
+44.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CGAU is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 8.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CGAU is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 8.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.18
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGAU is currently trading at $22.63, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.36 to $23.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.74, while resistance sits at $24.52.
Market Sentiment: CGAU scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $19.25. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.74, while resistance sits at $24.52.
Market Sentiment: CGAU scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $19.25. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$20.36 -
$23.71
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
32.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.9% above Wall St target ($19.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.36 -
$23.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.74
Resistance Level
$24.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.72
Wall Street Target
$19.25
(-14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
36.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 9.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.49
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$26.49
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$28.67
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.75
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.1%)
$64.21
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 18.1%)
$37.31
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 18.1%)
$29.61
(+31%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.04
Bull Case
$15.79
(-30%)
Analyst growth -36.5%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$14.36
(-37%)
Market implied -36.5%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$15.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGAU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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