Centerra Gold (CGAU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGAU - Centerra Gold Inc.
$21.43
-0.11 (-0.51%)
▼
5d:
-5.01%
30d:
-3.73%
90d:
+29.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGAU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGAU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.91
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGAU is currently trading at $21.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.03 to $23.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (9.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGAU scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $17.50. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGAU scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $17.50. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.03 -
$23.44
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.3% above Wall St target ($17.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.03 -
$23.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.00
Resistance Level
$23.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.24
Wall Street Target
$17.50
(-18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
36.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 9.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.72
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$24.08
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$25.52
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.34
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$63.56
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 17.8%)
$35.03
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$29.29
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$14.57
(-32%)
Analyst growth -38.5%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$13.24
(-38%)
Market implied -38.5%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$14.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGAU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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