Cognex (CGNX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGNX - Cognex Corp
$54.60
-3.45 (-5.94%)
▼
5d:
-1.92%
30d:
-6.17%
90d:
-12.01%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CGNX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CGNX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.18
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGNX is currently trading at $54.60, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.09 to $62.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.0) compared to its historical average (34.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 79.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CGNX scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.37 (+45.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CGNX scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.37 (+45.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$57.09 -
$62.75
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CGNX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.4% below Wall St target ($79.37)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.09 -
$62.75
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.12
Resistance Level
$63.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.01
Wall Street Target
$79.37
(+45.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 34.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.51
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$46.72
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$43.21
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→34)
$54.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 19.3%)
$92.66
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$68.14
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$57.92
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 29.50 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.85
Bull Case
$65.93
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 31.0
Base Case
$54.60
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 29.5
Bear Case
$41.77
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.0 to 34.1
Stabilization Target:
$68.94
(+26.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGNX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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