Is COHR stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, COHR is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COHR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of COHR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for COHR to be between $275.30 and $306.33. The current price is $319.19.

What is the analyst price target for COHR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for COHR is $412.52. This implies a potential upside of 29.2% from current levels.

Coherent (COHR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

COHR - Coherent Corp.

OPTICAL INSTRUMENTS & LENSES

$319.19

31.38 (10.90%) ▲

5d: +9.83%

30d: +17.34%

90d: -4.25%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your COHR Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $319.19 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COHR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$407.54

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$253.05

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: COHR is currently trading at $319.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $275.30 to $306.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 38.1) is in line with its historical norms (37.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, COHR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $275.79, while resistance sits at $332.86. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.9% recently.

Market Sentiment: COHR scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $412.52 (+29.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $275.30 - $306.33

Company Quality Score 39/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 34.3%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+10.9%)
BULLISH: Trading 29.2% below Wall St target ($412.52)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $275.30 - $306.33

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $275.79

Resistance Level $332.86

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 38.13

Wall Street Target $412.52 (+29.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 33.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 73.0%

Profit Margin 11.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.0% premium

PE vs Historical 38.1 vs 37.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $322.38 (+1%)

2-Year Target $325.61 (+2%)

3-Year Target $328.86 (+3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 38→37) PE COMPRESSION $319.12 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 38.1, Growth: 53.6%) $1077.27 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 53.6%) $576.36 (+81%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 53.6%) $489.90 (+54%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 30.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $10.47

Bull Case $385.42 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.0

Base Case $319.19 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 30.5

Bear Case $244.18 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Sherri R Luther SELL 2000 shares 2026-04-22

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Advanced COHR Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COHR price and gamma walls.

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