Coherent (COHR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COHR - Coherent Corp.
$237.53
5.73 (2.47%)
▲
5d:
-9.79%
30d:
-23.47%
90d:
-24.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COHR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: COHR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$407.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$253.05
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COHR is currently trading at $237.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $258.43 to $322.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.4) compared to its historical average (36.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 73.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COHR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $217.83, while resistance sits at $332.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $405.22 (+70.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COHR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $217.83, while resistance sits at $332.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $405.22 (+70.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$258.43 -
$322.02
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COHR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 70.6% below Wall St target ($405.22)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$258.43 -
$322.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$217.83
Resistance Level
$332.09
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.37
Wall Street Target
$405.22
(+70.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
73.0%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.4 vs 36.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$217.82
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$199.74
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$183.16
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→37)
$237.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.4, Growth: 53.6%)
$801.66
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 53.6%)
$561.10
(+136%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 53.6%)
$476.94
(+101%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 30.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.79
Bull Case
$286.82
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$237.53
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$181.71
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.4 to 36.8
Stabilization Target:
$308.06
(+29.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COHR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced COHR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COHR price and gamma walls.
