Choice Hotels Intnl. (CHH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHH - Choice Hotels Intnl.
$96.77
-1.46 (-1.49%)
▼
5d:
-2.65%
30d:
-8.31%
90d:
-9.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.24
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHH is currently trading at $96.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.59 to $109.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.75 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.75 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$100.59 -
$109.56
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($114.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.59 -
$109.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.73
Resistance Level
$110.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.86
Wall Street Target
$114.75
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 14.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.87
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$91.05
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$88.32
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$96.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$187.07
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$119.31
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$101.41
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.96
Bull Case
$116.79
(+21%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$106.17
(+10%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$66.80
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$106.07
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott E Oaksmith
SELL
1603 shares
2026-03-18
Scott E Oaksmith
SELL
600 shares
2026-03-17
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