Choice Hotels Intnl. (CHH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHH - Choice Hotels Intnl.
$111.98
-1.68 (-1.48%)
▼
5d:
+4.73%
30d:
+10.17%
90d:
+1.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.56
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHH is currently trading at $111.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.81 to $107.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $101.43, while resistance sits at $115.40.
Market Sentiment: CHH scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $101.43, while resistance sits at $115.40.
Market Sentiment: CHH scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$98.81 -
$107.89
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($114.94)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with 7.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.81 -
$107.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.43
Resistance Level
$115.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.89
Wall Street Target
$114.94
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.22
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$116.50
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$118.83
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$111.76
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.6%)
$185.91
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 7.6%)
$139.35
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 7.6%)
$118.45
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.09
Bull Case
$132.65
(+19%)
Analyst growth 6.1%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case
$120.59
(+8%)
Market implied 6.1%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$77.29
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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