Choice Hotels Intnl. (CHH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHH - Choice Hotels Intnl.
$102.50
0.19 (0.19%)
â˛
5d:
+0.68%
30d:
+2.09%
90d:
-4.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.23
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHH is currently trading at $102.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.60 to $105.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $96.85, while resistance sits at $105.58.
Market Sentiment: CHH scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.60 (+11.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $96.85, while resistance sits at $105.58.
Market Sentiment: CHH scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.60 (+11.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$97.60 -
$105.92
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($114.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.60 -
$105.92
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.85
Resistance Level
$105.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.53
Wall Street Target
$114.60
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.27
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$100.05
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$98.85
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â14)
$102.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.1%)
$195.00
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 8.1%)
$129.31
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 8.1%)
$109.91
(+7%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.05
Bull Case
$120.96
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.5%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$109.96
(+7%)
Market implied 7.5%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$69.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$106.08
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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