HLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$320.49
-1.53 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
-1.38%
30d:
-3.5%
90d:
-1.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$414.97
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$257.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLT is currently trading at $320.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $322.53 to $338.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.7) is in line with its historical norms (31.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $311.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HLT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $311.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HLT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$322.53 -
$338.10
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HLT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($351.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$322.53 -
$338.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$311.67
Resistance Level
$333.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.71
Wall Street Target
$351.63
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.7 vs 31.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$318.57
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$316.66
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$314.76
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→31)
$319.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.7, Growth: 15.6%)
$494.59
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 15.6%)
$333.90
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 15.6%)
$283.81
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.57
Bull Case
$562.72
(+76%)
Analyst growth 58.9%, PE expands to 53.9
Base Case
$511.56
(+60%)
Market implied 58.9%, PE stable at 49.0
Bear Case
$218.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.7 to 31.2
Stabilization Target:
$325.64
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 4:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-23
Christopher J Nassetta
SELL
114289 shares
2026-02-17
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