Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$318.82
3.38 (1.07%)
▲
5d:
+1.55%
30d:
+2.35%
90d:
-6.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HLT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HLT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$415.68
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$258.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLT is currently trading at $318.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $305.35 to $322.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.2) is in line with its historical norms (31.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $325.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $353.00 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $325.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $353.00 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$305.35 -
$322.81
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HLT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($353.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$305.35 -
$322.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$302.11
Resistance Level
$325.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.17
Wall Street Target
$353.00
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.2 vs 31.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$312.29
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$309.16
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$306.07
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→31)
$314.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.2, Growth: 15.6%)
$487.51
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$329.62
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 15.6%)
$280.18
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.71
Bull Case
$545.24
(+73%)
Analyst growth 55.8%, PE expands to 52.2
Base Case
$495.67
(+57%)
Market implied 55.8%, PE stable at 47.4
Bear Case
$216.32
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.2 to 31.0
Stabilization Target:
$324.10
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 12:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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