Is HLT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, HLT is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HLT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of HLT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for HLT to be between $306.97 and $340.32. The current price is $357.37.

What is the analyst price target for HLT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for HLT is $353.93. This implies a potential upside of -2.3% from current levels.

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

HOTELS & MOTELS

$357.37

-4.88 (-1.35%) ▼

5d: +4.19%

30d: +16.32%

90d: +9.97%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your HLT Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 27, 2026 4d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 21, 2026 at $362.25 · last confirmed Oct 21, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HLT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$410.72

Based on 9.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$255.02

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: HLT is currently trading at $357.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $306.97 to $340.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.8) compared to its historical average (31.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $364.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: HLT scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $306.97 - $340.32

Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 20.0%

Protect Your Profits

HLT is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.0% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($353.93)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $306.97 - $340.32

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $323.29

Resistance Level $364.50

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 34.76

Wall Street Target $353.93 (-2.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 14.1%

Profit Margin 31.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.8% premium

PE vs Historical 34.8 vs 31.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $376.02 (+4%)

2-Year Target $390.30 (+8%)

3-Year Target $405.14 (+12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 35→31) PE COMPRESSION $362.51 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 34.8, Growth: 15.2%) $553.20 (+53%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.2%) $316.10 (-13%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.2%) $268.68 (-26%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 28.74 | Forward EPS (Implied): $12.61

Bull Case $437.42 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 30.2

Base Case $362.25 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 28.7

Bear Case $277.12 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 25.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 2:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced HLT Option Strategies

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