Caledonia Mining (CMCL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$20.95
-0.97 (-4.43%)
▼
5d:
+10.15%
30d:
-13.0%
90d:
-8.27%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
TODAY
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (86%)
Quality Score
62/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$20.84 – $23.90
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
4.6x
CHEAP
vs 5.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$43.88
+109.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$18.87 / $22.27
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMCL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 28% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.27
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.39
14.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMCL is currently trading at $20.95, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.84 to $23.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.6) compared to its historical average (5.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.87, while resistance sits at $22.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMCL scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.88 (+109.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.87, while resistance sits at $22.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMCL scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.88 (+109.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$20.84 -
$23.90
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$20.84 -
$23.90
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$18.87
Resistance Level
$22.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 109.4% below Wall St target ($43.88)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 81/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.58
Wall Street Target
$43.88
(+109.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.3%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.6 vs 5.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.59
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$18.32
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$17.12
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$20.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.0%)
$134.34
(+541%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.6, Growth: 14.0%)
$31.01
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.9, Growth: 14.0%)
$26.36
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.49
Bull Case
$31.57
(+51%)
Analyst growth 30.9%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$28.70
(+37%)
Market implied 30.9%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$14.91
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.6 to 5.6
Stabilization Target:
$25.59
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CMCL)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Trader on StockTwits expresses bullish sentiment towards $CMCL, stating that owning actual assets is worth less despite more money being printed. No recent news articles available.
Key Retail Themes:
Money printing
Asset value
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 5:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 AM
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