Is CME stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, CME is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CME shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of CME stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CME to be between $265.09 and $288.09. The current price is $305.98.

What is the analyst price target for CME?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CME is $296.12. This implies a potential upside of -3.2% from current levels.

CME Group (CME) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CME - CME Group Inc.

SECURITY & COMMODITY BROKERS, DEALERS, EXCHANGES & SERVICES

$305.98

10.19 (3.45%) ▲

5d: +5.71%

30d: +12.99%

90d: +19.85%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your CME Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $278.70 · last confirmed Oct 16, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CME shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 5.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$364.48

Based on 4.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$226.32

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $305.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $265.09 to $288.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $307.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.

Market Sentiment: CME scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $265.09 - $288.09

Company Quality Score 33/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

Protect Your Profits

CME is technically overbought (RSI 78). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($296.12)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $265.09 - $288.09

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $276.38

Resistance Level $307.27

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.40

Wall Street Target $296.13 (-3.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 2.5%

Profit Margin 63.4%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.9% premium

PE vs Historical 23.4 vs 22.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $311.79 (+2%)

2-Year Target $317.72 (+4%)

3-Year Target $323.75 (+6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→22) PE COMPRESSION $305.82 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 23.4, Growth: 5.5%) $359.16 (+17%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.5%) $304.88 (0%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 5.5%) $259.15 (-15%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 25.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.79

Bull Case $360.92 (+18%)

Analyst growth 10.9%, PE expands to 27.6

Base Case $328.11 (+7%)

Market implied 10.9%, PE stable at 25.1

Bear Case $201.14 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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