CME Group (CME) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CME - CME Group Inc.
$275.54
1.47 (0.54%)
â˛
5d:
-2.31%
30d:
+5.1%
90d:
+5.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $281.29 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 6.2/10
Get Alerted When CME Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CME is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CME is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$360.67
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$223.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $275.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $264.89 to $280.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $271.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CME scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $271.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CME scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$264.89 -
$280.84
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CME? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($283.07)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$264.89 -
$280.84
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$271.30
Resistance Level
$289.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.34
Wall Street Target
$283.07
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Profit Margin
63.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 22.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$271.96
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$268.42
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$264.93
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21â22)
$275.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$322.50
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.4%)
$304.85
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 5.4%)
$259.13
(-6%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.78
Bull Case
$330.49
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.6%, PE expands to 25.6
Base Case
$300.44
(+9%)
Market implied 9.6%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$186.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$286.68
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jonathan L Marcus
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-17
Top Rated Financial Data & Stock Exchanges Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
SPGI
S&P Global Inc |
STRONG BUY
26 analysts |
$519 | 37 SELL |
|
COIN
Coinbase Global Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$199 | 39 SELL |
|
MCO
Moodys Corporation |
BUY
23 analysts |
$560 | 40 HOLD |
|
TRU
TransUnion |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$97 | 45 HOLD |
|
NDAQ
Nasdaq Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$110 | 44 HOLD |
Advanced CME Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CME price and gamma walls.
