CME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CME - CME Group Inc.
$274.98
4.11 (1.52%)
▲
5d:
+1.92%
30d:
+8.12%
90d:
-4.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 11, 2026 at $259.32 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CME shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CME shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$362.76
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$225.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $274.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $249.23 to $269.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $275.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CME scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $275.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CME scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$249.23 -
$269.32
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CME? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($283.07)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$249.23 -
$269.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$256.83
Resistance Level
$275.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.27
Wall Street Target
$283.07
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Profit Margin
63.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 22.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$270.86
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$266.79
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$262.79
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→22)
$275.56
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$322.15
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.4%)
$304.03
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 5.4%)
$258.42
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.97
Bull Case
$321.86
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.0%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$292.60
(+6%)
Market implied 8.0%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$184.19
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 22.3
Stabilization Target:
$288.34
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jonathan L Marcus
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-17
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Advanced CME Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CME price and gamma walls.
