CME Group (CME) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CME - CME Group Inc.
$263.14
-1.96 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-0.51%
30d:
-5.27%
90d:
+12.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$360.26
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$223.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $263.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $267.21 to $281.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $258.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $258.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$267.21 -
$281.66
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CME? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($283.60)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$267.21 -
$281.66
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$258.87
Resistance Level
$277.74
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.36
Wall Street Target
$283.60
(+7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Profit Margin
63.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 22.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$256.04
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$249.12
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$242.40
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$263.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.5%)
$309.79
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.5%)
$309.13
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 5.5%)
$262.76
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.93
Bull Case
$315.97
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.4%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$287.24
(+9%)
Market implied 8.4%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$180.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.4 to 22.1
Stabilization Target:
$285.67
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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