MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$270.64
2.20 (0.82%)
▲
5d:
+2.22%
30d:
+0.45%
90d:
-7.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$420.37
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$261.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $270.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $265.71 to $275.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (21.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $278.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $323.90 (+19.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $278.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $323.90 (+19.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$265.71 -
$275.88
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($323.90)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$265.71 -
$275.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$260.96
Resistance Level
$278.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.24
Wall Street Target
$323.90
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 21.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$261.20
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$251.28
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$241.73
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$271.45
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 9.3%)
$383.52
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 9.3%)
$354.49
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$301.32
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.23
Bull Case
$346.63
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$315.12
(+16%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$185.65
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 21.6
Stabilization Target:
$304.90
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
333 shares
2026-04-23
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
2626 shares
2026-04-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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