McDonald's (MCD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$273.63
-1.17 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
-1.59%
30d:
+14.82%
90d:
+0.29%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
Protect MCD Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
33/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$236.64 – $269.71
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
20.0x
FAIR
vs 20.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$299.00
+9.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$257.11 / $283.53
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $258.12 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$355.78
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$220.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $273.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $236.64 to $269.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $257.11, while resistance sits at $283.53.
Market Sentiment: MCD scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $257.11, while resistance sits at $283.53.
Market Sentiment: MCD scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$236.64 -
$269.71
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$236.64 -
$269.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$257.11
Resistance Level
$283.53
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($299.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.03
Wall Street Target
$299.00
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Profit Margin
32.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 20.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$270.89
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$268.18
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$265.50
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$273.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.0, Growth: 5.6%)
$322.10
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$319.41
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$271.49
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.64
Bull Case
$326.74
(+19%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$297.03
(+9%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$186.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.0 to 20.6
Stabilization Target:
$281.45
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MCD)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
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Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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