McDonald's (MCD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$252.63
6.38 (2.59%)
▲
5d:
+4.18%
30d:
+6.0%
90d:
-4.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 15, 2026 at $242.50 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026
Strength: 5.8/10
Get Alerted When MCD Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$369.26
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$229.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $252.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $233.07 to $248.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $252.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCD scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.69 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $252.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCD scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.69 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$233.07 -
$248.28
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($291.69)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$233.07 -
$248.28
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$232.50
Resistance Level
$252.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.37
Wall Street Target
$291.69
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Profit Margin
31.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 20.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$242.78
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$233.31
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$224.21
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$252.59
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.7%)
$331.55
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 6.7%)
$306.74
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 6.7%)
$260.73
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.30
Bull Case
$302.79
(+20%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$275.27
(+9%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$167.45
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$284.61
(+12.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Restaurants Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Restaurants by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc |
STRONG BUY
26 analysts |
$71 | 37 SELL |
|
CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc. |
BUY
28 analysts |
$84 | 53 HOLD |
|
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse Inc |
BUY
28 analysts |
$210 | 52 HOLD |
|
WING
Wingstop Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$193 | 41 HOLD |
|
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill I… |
BUY
35 analysts |
$44 | 36 SELL |
Advanced MCD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCD price and gamma walls.
