MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$270.10
-8.51 (-3.05%)
▼
5d:
-5.16%
30d:
-3.63%
90d:
-12.55%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$433.28
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$269.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $270.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $275.55 to $284.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.0) compared to its historical average (22.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $271.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.29 (+22.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $271.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.29 (+22.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$275.55 -
$284.12
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($331.29)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$275.55 -
$284.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$271.85
Resistance Level
$285.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.00
Wall Street Target
$331.29
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 22.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$257.41
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$245.31
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$233.78
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$270.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.5%)
$406.68
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.5%)
$354.70
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 9.5%)
$301.49
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.12
Bull Case
$359.54
(+33%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 25.3
Base Case
$326.86
(+21%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$189.45
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 22.0
Stabilization Target:
$312.82
(+15.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
333 shares
2026-04-23
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
2626 shares
2026-04-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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