McDonald's (MCD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$252.53
-0.52 (-0.21%)
▼
5d:
-2.73%
30d:
-8.4%
90d:
-11.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 27, 2026 at $260.06 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$397.32
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$246.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $252.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $258.89 to $273.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (21.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $252.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $315.39 (+24.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $252.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $315.39 (+24.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$258.89 -
$273.21
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.9% below Wall St target ($315.39)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$258.89 -
$273.21
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$252.15
Resistance Level
$266.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.07
Wall Street Target
$315.39
(+24.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Profit Margin
31.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 21.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$239.40
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$226.95
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$215.15
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$252.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.1%)
$356.34
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 8.1%)
$319.16
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 8.1%)
$271.29
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.32
Bull Case
$315.82
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$287.11
(+14%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$172.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 21.2
Stabilization Target:
$296.34
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
333 shares
2026-04-23
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
2626 shares
2026-04-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCD price and gamma walls.
