Ecopetrol (EC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$17.75
-0.32 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
+3.2%
30d:
+4.66%
90d:
+9.16%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.08
Based on -8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $17.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.68 to $17.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.91. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.91. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.68 -
$17.66
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 21.6% above Wall St target ($13.91)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.68 -
$17.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.30
Resistance Level
$18.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.36
Wall Street Target
$13.91
(-21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
234.5%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.87
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$18.00
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$18.13
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.85
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -20.6%)
$25.20
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -20.6%)
$12.94
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -20.6%)
$11.00
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.54
Bull Case
$22.12
(+25%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$20.11
(+13%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$12.29
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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