Ecopetrol (EC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$16.27
-0.21 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
-0.61%
30d:
-6.76%
90d:
+10.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.02
Based on -6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $16.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.54 to $17.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 234.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $14.09. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $14.09. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.54 -
$17.67
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.4% above Wall St target ($14.09)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.54 -
$17.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.07
Resistance Level
$17.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.80
Wall Street Target
$14.09
(-13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
234.5%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.52
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$14.81
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$14.13
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$16.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -17.3%)
$27.49
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: -17.3%)
$11.86
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: -17.3%)
$10.08
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$16.27
(0%)
Analyst growth -10.3%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$14.79
(-9%)
Market implied -10.3%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$11.21
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$18.67
(+14.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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