EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$16.77
-0.27 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
+4.75%
30d:
+16.06%
90d:
+18.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.71
Based on -7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $16.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.78 to $16.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.40, while resistance sits at $17.31.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.52. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.40, while resistance sits at $17.31.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.52. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.78 -
$16.40
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 19.4% above Wall St target ($13.52)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with -8.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.78 -
$16.40
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.40
Resistance Level
$17.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.67
Wall Street Target
$13.52
(-19.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.14
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$17.52
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$17.90
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -18.1%)
$23.74
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: -18.1%)
$12.23
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: -18.1%)
$10.39
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$18.88
(+13%)
Analyst growth 0.7%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$17.16
(+2%)
Market implied 0.7%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$11.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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