Ecopetrol (EC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$17.01
-0.23 (-1.33%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.9%
30d:
+1.92%
90d:
+6.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 10, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: EC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: EC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.10
Based on -8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $17.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.61 to $17.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 234.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $14.48. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $14.48. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.61 -
$17.66
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 16.0% above Wall St target ($14.48)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.61 -
$17.66
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.65
Resistance Level
$18.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.15
Wall Street Target
$14.48
(-16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
234.5%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.71
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$16.19
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$15.69
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â10)
$17.32
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -20.5%)
$27.29
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: -20.5%)
$12.57
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: -20.5%)
$10.68
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$19.92
(+16%)
Analyst growth 2.4%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$18.11
(+5%)
Market implied 2.4%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$12.02
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$19.04
(+10.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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