Ecopetrol (EC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.30
+0.04 (+0.26%)
▲
5d:
-3.89%
30d:
-12.67%
90d:
-11.1%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$16.18 – $17.72
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.4x
CHEAP
vs 10.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.53
+1.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.01 / $18.01
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.77
Based on -8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $15.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.18 to $17.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 234.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.18 -
$17.72
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$16.18 -
$17.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$15.01
Resistance Level
$18.01
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.53)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (52/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.41
Wall Street Target
$15.53
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
234.5%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.86
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$12.56
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$11.38
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$15.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -21.4%)
$29.87
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: -21.4%)
$11.15
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: -21.4%)
$9.48
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89
Bull Case
$18.33
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.2%, PE expands to 8.9
Base Case
$16.66
(+9%)
Market implied 9.2%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$10.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$20.63
(+34.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (EC)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Oct 20, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on EC are bearish (sentiment score -0.43) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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