Encore Capital Group (ECPG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$100.36
-3.80 (-3.65%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.18%
30d:
+6.23%
90d:
+11.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
Get Alerted When ECPG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ECPG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ECPG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.50
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $100.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.51 to $102.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ECPG scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.00 (+16.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ECPG scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.00 (+16.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$96.51 -
$102.01
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($117.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.51 -
$102.01
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.29
Resistance Level
$105.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.81
Wall Street Target
$117.00
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.47
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$104.62
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$106.82
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â6)
PE COMPRESSION
$100.44
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.1%)
$380.07
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 9.1%)
$130.26
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 9.1%)
$110.72
(+10%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.30
Bull Case
$127.02
(+27%)
Analyst growth 10.9%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$115.48
(+15%)
Market implied 10.9%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$70.83
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Credit Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Credit Services by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AFRM
Affirm Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$99 | 51 HOLD |
|
MA
Mastercard Inc |
STRONG BUY
40 analysts |
$672 | 35 SELL |
|
COF
Capital One Financial CoâĻ |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$252 | 71 BUY |
|
V
Visa Inc. Class A |
STRONG BUY
40 analysts |
$423 | 27 SELL |
|
AXP
American Express Company |
BUY
30 analysts |
$369 | 49 HOLD |
