ECPG
Encore Capital Group, Inc.
SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT INSTITUTIONS
Encore Capital Group (ECPG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$112.35
+4.33 (+4.01%)
▲
5d:
+12.43%
30d:
+6.39%
90d:
+10.92%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (32%)
Quality Score
39/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$97.08 – $109.32
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.7x
FAIR
vs 6.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$131.33
+16.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$98.54 / $126.74
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ECPG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.15
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $112.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.08 to $109.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $98.54, while resistance sits at $126.74. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ECPG scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.33 (+16.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $98.54, while resistance sits at $126.74. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ECPG scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.33 (+16.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$97.08 -
$109.32
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
31.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$97.08 -
$109.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$98.54
Resistance Level
$126.74
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($131.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.74
Wall Street Target
$131.33
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.7%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.15
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$115.97
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$117.83
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$111.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.1%)
$373.12
(+232%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 4.1%)
$126.58
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 4.1%)
$107.60
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.55
Bull Case
$127.42
(+13%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$115.83
(+3%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$73.45
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ECPG)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jun 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Traders express bullish sentiment towards $ECPG following a strong close.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment
Strong close
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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