ECPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$85.90
1.95 (2.32%)
▲
5d:
+3.93%
30d:
+5.31%
90d:
+22.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ECPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ECPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$118.69
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $85.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.45 to $82.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.1) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 100% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ECPG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.33 (+31.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ECPG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.33 (+31.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$79.45 -
$82.96
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.9% below Wall St target ($113.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.45 -
$82.96
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.02
Resistance Level
$83.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.09
Wall Street Target
$113.33
(+31.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.30
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$84.70
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$84.11
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$85.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.6%)
$393.62
(+358%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 8.6%)
$110.00
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 8.6%)
$93.50
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.84
Bull Case
$101.50
(+18%)
Analyst growth 9.9%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$92.28
(+7%)
Market implied 9.9%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$57.09
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$87.50
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan B Bell
SELL
260 shares
2026-03-03
Ryan B Bell
SELL
7240 shares
2026-03-02
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