ECPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$78.01
-0.08 (-0.10%)
▼
5d:
-4.69%
30d:
-6.23%
90d:
+5.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ECPG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ECPG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.91
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $78.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.73 to $83.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 100% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.33 (+33.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.33 (+33.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$79.73 -
$83.42
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.7% below Wall St target ($104.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.73 -
$83.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.02
Resistance Level
$82.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.90
Wall Street Target
$104.33
(+33.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.53
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$75.07
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$73.65
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$78.69
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 1.7%)
$305.30
(+291%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 1.7%)
$82.16
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 1.7%)
$69.84
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.84
Bull Case
$92.77
(+16%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 7.0
Base Case
$84.34
(+5%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$55.66
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 6.3
Stabilization Target:
$83.35
(+6.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan B Bell
SELL
260 shares
2026-03-03
Ryan B Bell
SELL
7240 shares
2026-03-02
Ryan B Bell
SELL
2500 shares
2025-12-10
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