Encore Capital Group (ECPG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$98.56
0.62 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
+1.68%
30d:
+1.09%
90d:
+22.53%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ECPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ECPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.78
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $98.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.61 to $101.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.80, while resistance sits at $103.74.
Market Sentiment: ECPG scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.67 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.80, while resistance sits at $103.74.
Market Sentiment: ECPG scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.67 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$95.61 -
$101.80
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($115.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.61 -
$101.80
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.80
Resistance Level
$103.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.74
Wall Street Target
$115.67
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.63
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$102.74
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$104.90
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.03
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.2%)
$373.08
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 8.2%)
$124.70
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 8.2%)
$105.99
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.24
Bull Case
$118.96
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$108.15
(+10%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$66.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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