ECPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$101.21
3.07 (3.13%)
▲
5d:
-2.44%
30d:
+18.19%
90d:
+24.08%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ECPG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ECPG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.78
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $101.21, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.41 to $100.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.62, while resistance sits at $104.98. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ECPG scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.67 (+14.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.62, while resistance sits at $104.98. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ECPG scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.67 (+14.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$90.41 -
$100.14
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
31.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($115.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.41 -
$100.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.62
Resistance Level
$104.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.92
Wall Street Target
$115.67
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.45
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$107.79
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$111.24
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$101.23
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.2%)
$371.23
(+267%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$128.05
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$108.84
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.75
Bull Case
$123.79
(+22%)
Analyst growth 14.7%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$112.53
(+11%)
Market implied 14.7%, PE stable at 7.7
Bear Case
$66.74
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan B Bell
SELL
260 shares
2026-03-03
Ryan B Bell
SELL
7240 shares
2026-03-02
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