Ecovyst (ECVT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECVT - Ecovyst Inc.
$10.12
0.16 (1.61%)
▲
5d:
-0.2%
30d:
-2.41%
90d:
-14.31%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ECVT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ECVT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.09
37.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECVT is currently trading at $10.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.97 to $10.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECVT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.56, while resistance sits at $10.60.
Market Sentiment: ECVT scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.17 (+49.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECVT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.56, while resistance sits at $10.60.
Market Sentiment: ECVT scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.17 (+49.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.97 -
$10.44
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.9% below Wall St target ($15.17)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.97 -
$10.44
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.55
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.56
Resistance Level
$10.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.64
Wall Street Target
$15.17
(+49.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.9%
Profit Margin
-7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.23
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$8.42
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$7.68
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$10.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 25.4%)
$35.02
(+246%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 25.4%)
$19.98
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 25.4%)
$16.98
(+68%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.23
Bull Case
$21.91
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.6
Base Case
$19.92
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.3
Bear Case
$6.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$13.31
(+31.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECVT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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